Is it worth investing in savings if the Selic continues to rise? See comparison with public title and CBD

SAO PAULO – With market projections for the basic interest rate, the Selic, surpassing the 8.5% level at the beginning of 2022, savings can return to pay a remuneration of 0.5% per month plus the reference rate , which would somehow increase the return on the passbook. However, according to XP analysts, even with the change, the application would continue to lose out on other investments, such as government bonds.

The reason for the change, remembers XP, is that since 2012, savings have had two forms of remuneration: when the Selic is below 8.5%, the yield is 70% of the Selic plus the variation in the reference rate (TR) ; when it is above this level, the return becomes 0.5% per month plus TR.

Currently, savings yield about 0.45% per month. This is because, since 2017, the reference rate has been at 0%, due to the drop in Selic. With the adjustment in income to 0.5% per month, if the Selic in fact exceeds 8.5% per year, the annual remuneration of the passbook could reach 6.168% plus the TR.

Although it increases a little, calculations made by XP analysts show that the remuneration that could be obtained in savings would follow behind the profitability of government bonds such as the Treasury Selic or even a CDB that offered 120% of the CDI, the main reference for return on income fixed.

Considering the Selic rate constant at 8.5% per year, analysts’ simulations show that an investor who had invested R$5,000 in February 2022 and redeemed the amount in August 2024 would receive R$6,199.92 net in the CDB.

Likewise, if it had invested in the Selic Treasury, the investor would have received R$5,972.43 net. In the case of savings, the person would redeem R$5,807 net.

Worst performance since 1991

Despite being one of the most popular investments in the country, the real profitability of savings – that is, discounting inflation – accumulated in 12 months was again negative in September, at 7.46%.

According to a survey by the financial information platform Economatica, it was the 13th consecutive month in which the return of the passbook was not enough to overcome the advance of inflation, measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA).

The performance was the worst recorded since October 1991, when savings had a real return of -9.72% in 12 months.

Between January and September 2021, the passbook returned -4.89% discounting inflation. There was only a worse performance in 1991, when, between January and September, real profitability was negative by 11.3%.

In the last 30 years, savings only lost to inflation from January to September on three occasions: in addition to 2021 and 1991, this also happened in 2015.

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About Yadunandan Singh

Born in 1992, Yadunandan approaches the world of video games thanks to two sacred monsters like Diablo and above all Sonic, strictly in the Sega Saturn version. Ranging between consoles and PCs, he is particularly fond of platform titles and RPGs, not disdaining all other genres and moving in the constant search for the perfect balance between narration and interactivity.

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