The first poll of voting intentions carried out after Sergio Moro’s affiliation with Somos shows the former judge and former minister with a performance that varies between 11% and 18%, according to a survey carried out by Ponteio Politics, released today. Moro does better when President Jair Bolsonaro (non-party) is not listed among the candidate options. Ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), like surveys carried out by other institutes, leads in all scenarios of the first and second rounds.
The scenarios in which Moro registers between 11% and 18% are those in which the interviewer presents a list of possible candidates to the voter, the so-called stimulated poll. In the spontaneous version, in which the list is not presented, voting intentions for the former federal judge are 3%, far from the 30% and 23% obtained by Lula and Bolsonaro, respectively. In spontaneous research, Moro draws with former Ceará Governor Ciro Gomes (PDT).
Ponteio Politics elaborated four scenarios in the stimulated modality. Lula registers 35% to 39% of voting intentions. His best result is verified when Ciro Gomes is not mentioned among the candidates. In this case, Bolsonaro hits 26% and Moro 13%. Next, the governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), with 4%; former Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta (DEM), with 3% and senator Simone Tebet (MDB), with 2%. The president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), registers 1% of voting intentions. Whites, nulls and none of those mentioned add up to 13%.
In the scenario with Ciro Gomes, Lula has 37% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (24%) and Moro (11%). The former governor of Ceará appears with 8% and Doria takes 3%.
In the scenario where the poll does not place Bolsonaro among the possible candidates, Lula repeats 37%, but Moro reaches 18% of voting intentions. Ciro Gomes goes to 11%. Doria keeps the 3%.
In the option in which Doria is replaced by the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSDB), the results change little. Lula gets 35%; Bolsonaro with 25%, followed by Moro (12%) and Ciro Gomes (9%). Milk adds 2%, same result as Mandetta. This Sunday, the PSDB will have previews to decide who will be the party’s representative in the 2022 elections. Doria, Leite and the former Manaus mayor Arthur Virgílio, who was not tested in the Ponteio Politico survey, are contesting.
This is the first survey done by the consulting firm. 1,000 voters were interviewed by telephone between Tuesday and yesterday. The margin of error is 3 percentage points and the confidence interval is 95%.
The survey outlined six scenarios for the second round, four of them with Lula. In all of them, the PT would be elected. In the dispute with Bolsonaro, Lula would add 50% against 32%. With Moro, the former president would win with 45% against 31%.
In scenarios without Lula, Ciro Gomes would defeat Bolsonaro by 44% to 32%. Doria, on the other hand, would win the current president by a narrow margin, 37% against 33%.
The poll also asked who the voter would “not at all” vote for. Bolsonaro, with 61%, is the name with the highest rejection rate. Doria had 52%; Moro, 47%; Lula, 43%, and Ciro, 45%.
For 55% of those interviewed, the Bolsonaro government is bad or bad. 23% consider it excellent or good and 18% consider it regular.
Content originally published by Valor PRO, the real-time news service of Economic value
— Photo: Valter Campanato/Agência Brasil