Rising inflation, currency exchange and supply problems at some chains should curb discounts offered by stores on Black Friday this year. With indebted families and the labor market reacting slowly, economists expect that the average ticket will also be lower than in 2020.
“Discounts will clearly be smaller. Entrepreneurs have a tight profit margin, the consumer is indebted, and this scenario will be challenging for retailers to grant the discount that the customer expects”, says Kelly Carvalho, economic advisor at FecomercioSP.
Some projections for Black Friday, incorporated in the retail calendar since 2010, also indicate changes in the consumption basket. Sales in electronics and home appliance categories, which have historically been strong, are expected to slow as families switched devices during the socially restricted periods of the pandemic.
Projection by CNC (National Confederation of Commerce) shows an increase in the participation of segments such as clothing and personal care items. Consumption aimed at semi-durable and non-durable goods should grow, which can benefit the supermarket sector.
Last year, Black Friday boosted retail sales in November by 3%, with 30% from online commerce. Digital sales are expected to remain high, but the industry believes there is no longer the rush for internet shopping as in the first year of Covid-19.
“In addition to inflation, we cannot forget the high interest rates for consumers, which are at a different level from the 2020 event, when the Selic [taxa básica de juros] it hit a historic floor,” says Fabio Bentes, an economist at CNC. He points out that the most popular products are often sold on installments, and that the installments will be heavier.
In 2020, Black Friday’s turnover, considering five days of promotions, was R$ 6 billion in e-commerce, which accounts for a large part of the movement. The increase was 26.4%, the highest percentage increase since 2014, according to data from Ebit|Nielsen, which did not make a projection for 2021 in view of the uncertainty scenario.
There were more than 10 million online orders, with an average sales value of R$ 652, according to the consultancy.
CNC estimates that on Friday (26) it should move R$ 3.93 billion, considering physical and virtual stores. Not counting inflation, it is the highest level in 11 years. In real terms, however, the projected volume shows a 6.5% drop in volume, the first retraction since 2016.
“It’s the toughest scenario for retailers since 2016. At the end of 2015, annualized inflation was similar to today, at 10.6% in the last 12 months ending in October. It will be a big challenge to give a discount of more than 10% in commerce,” says Bentes.
According to Sindilojas-SP (São Paulo’s Retail and Retail Trade Union), companies still have difficulty finding goods after the supply chain crises and less capitalized merchants have no credit to invest in the end. of year.
Black Friday and Christmas are dates that generate temporary hires.
“The perspective is that it will even be better than last year, but not as expected. The indebtedness of medium-sized companies will significantly limit hiring,” says Aldo Macri, president of the union.