Ibovespa closes higher for the second consecutive day on the back of blue chips and US data

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SAO PAULO – Ibovespa launched a second consecutive earnings session this Wednesday (24). The Stock Exchange once again found support in index-heavy stocks, such as Vale ([ativo=VALE4]) and Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4), and had an extra boost from the indicators in the United States. The external agenda was loaded, with some data being anticipated due to the American Thanksgiving holiday – which is why the New York Stock Exchanges will be closed tomorrow.

The Proposal for Amendment to the Constitution (PEC), which makes room in the Budget by postponing the payment of precatório (judicial debts of the Union) was to be voted on next week in the Committee on Constitution and Justice (CCJ) of the Senate. Even though the news contradicted market expectations, which counted on a decision this week, the Ibovespa established itself in positive territory, doing better than the stock exchanges abroad.

Analysts highlight a combination of US indicators that helped the Ibovespa today. The second estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter was up 2.1%, slightly higher than the first estimate, but slightly lower than expected by economists. The PCE inflation index, which is a reference for decisions by the American Central Bank (Federal Reserve), increased 0.6% in October, reaching 5% in the last 12 months.

Rodrigo Franchini, a partner at Monte Bravo, explains that, on the other hand, the data for September was revised downwards. “And when these data are revised downwards, the market sees inflation less strong than before. This means that the rise in interest rates does not need to be as strong, which gives more gas to variable income assets and brings the prospect of flow to emerging markets,” he said. However, Franchini says that today’s movement may have been “a punctual breath”, which could be reversed with some internal news.

On the other hand, the minutes of the Open Market Committee (Fomc), the Federal Reserve’s Copom, showed that several members of the collegiate are willing to accelerate the closure of the bond purchase program (tapering), if inflation remains high. The document also showed that the Fed could act more quickly to raise interest rates.

“Another important data that helped the markets was the collection in October, which set a new record and reached R$ 179 billion, above expectations. These are fiscal surprises, with a primary surplus and a drop in the ratio between net debt and GDP, which little by little are having positive repercussions on the Stock Exchange”, said João Beck, economist and partner at BRA.

The Ibovespa closed up 0.83% at 104,514 points. The volume traded in the session was R$ 26.5 billion. The Ibovespa futures rose 0.44% in the last trades of the day, to 104,965 points.

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The commercial dollar closed down 0.25% to R$5.594 on purchase and R$5.595 on sale. Dollar futures maturing in December 2021 trades up 0.63% to R$5.611 near the close.

In the future interest rate market, contracts retreated after the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, signaled that he should not accelerate the pace of monetary tightening. In the extended session, the DI for January 2023 retreated 10 basis points to 12.16%; DI for January 2025 dropped 11 basis points to 11.84%; and the DI for January 2027 was down five basis points to 11.73%.

For tomorrow, the market awaits the release of the preview of the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for the month of November.

In the United States, the stock exchanges closed with mixed trends after the release of the indicators and the Fomc minutes. The Dow Jones closed down 0.03% to 35,804 points; the S&P rose 0.23% to 4,701 points; and the Nasdaq advanced 0.44%, to 15,845 points.

Oil prices closed on a fall and continued to retreat in extended-session business. The barrel of Brent retreats 0.21% to US$ 82.12 and that of WTI drops 0.34% to US$ 78.24.

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About Yadunandan Singh

Born in 1992, Yadunandan approaches the world of video games thanks to two sacred monsters like Diablo and above all Sonic, strictly in the Sega Saturn version. Ranging between consoles and PCs, he is particularly fond of platform titles and RPGs, not disdaining all other genres and moving in the constant search for the perfect balance between narration and interactivity.

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