“Conab was moderate and Brazil does not even repeat last year’s harvest”, says…

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The new crop estimate by Conab (National Supply Company) came in at 140.5 million tons this Tuesday (11) against the previous figure of 142.8 million. The update was highly expected by the market, however, the conservative tone of the institution was also already in the expectations of analysts, consultants and industry leaders. And for everyone consulted by Notícias Agrícolas, the losses in the 2021/22 crop are much more aggressive than those projected in this January report and could be even more so if the weather forecasts are confirmed for the next few days.

Last week, only for Paraná, the Deral (Department of Rural Economy of the State of PR) reduced its projection for the soybean crop from 18.4 to 13.1 million tons. Conab still estimates a safar in the state, however, of 18.5 million tons. For Rio Grande do Sul, its number is still 21.2 million tons.

See what market analysts and the president of Aprosoja Brasil, Antônio Galvan, say about Conab’s new projection and what can still be recorded for this season.

Antônio Galvan, President of Aprosoja Brazil

For Antônio Galvan, the break in Brazil is much more serious than that and Conab was quite moderate in its cut, and could have brought something between 135 and 138 million tons.

“Brazil does not even repeat last year’s harvest, we can reach close to 130 million tons alone, and I say after having visited many plantations in the south of the country and hearing reports from producers all over Brazil. places now and the climate is very different from what we had last year”, he says.

The president of Aprosoja Brasil highlights the very serious losses in Paraná – which in his perspective could reach 50% of the harvest -, a situation that could be even more severe in Rio Grande do Sul due to the heat wave that can lead to temperatures to exceed 40ºC, in addition to the floods and excessive rains in MATOPIBA that are taking place in an unprecedented way.

He also mentions the problems experienced by Mato Grosso do Sul, which also suffered aggressively from the drought – and which now manages to register some improvement in certain regions due to the arrival of rains, even if occasional – as well as areas of Mato Grosso, which have already started to harvest – still timidly – and that register productivity rates lower than normal for the region due to excessive rainfall and lack of light.

“And all this without mentioning the problem of plant tipping that is being studied and happening in many regions, and still without an answer”, adds the president. “São Paulo also has problems, Goiás too. Pará can’t finish planting. The whole of Brazil is suffering from some adverse condition now and that’s why we won’t even repeat last year’s crop. In the previous crop we didn’t have excess rains that we have today”.

Even so, Galvan also says that he recognizes the need that Conab has to maintain its more conservative tone and believes that the company will gradually make its cuts in the Brazilian crop in the following bulletins.

Ginaldo Sousa, Labhoro Group

“We had already been saying that Conab would not adjust its numbers in any way according to what the market has already done. Said and right. Conab is very conservative, as is the USDA, which should not bring great changes tomorrow. numbers were already expected”, said the director general of Grupo Labhoro, Ginaldo de Sousa.

According to him, Conab observes what can still happen in Rio Grande do Sul – which may lose even more given the heat expected to start this Tuesday in the state, with temperatures reaching more than 40ºC, especially with the critical phase. for the crops approaching, in the second half of January and beginning of February.

Conab, as Sousa explains, could bring new corrections, even if they happen month after month. “We can’t forget that Rio Grande do Sul is subject to a big break, due to drought and high temperatures starting next week, and the quality of the Center-West is far below normal. Many grains are burnt and damaged”.

Vlamir Brandalizze, Brandalizze Consulting

“This is an outdated report, which does not include the losses in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. In these two states alone we have a difference of 9 million tons”, explains Vlamir Brandalizze, market consultant at Brandalizze Consulting.

Also according to the consultant, the bulletin may have brought data collected in mid-December, but they are still conservative, since only in Paraná the losses were already greater than these at the time. “Deral updated the crop in Paraná to 13 million tons, but Conab brought the same 18 million tons from last month, and nothing changed for Rio Grande do Sul”.

Thus, Brandalizze believes that the numbers may be revised in February, “but it will be late. They should look at the data and bring position in January as it rains too much, drought, excessive heat and is lost everywhere now.” For the consultant, the Brazilian harvest is between 130 and 135 million tons at most. “Certainly our crop will be even more harmed”.

WHAT DOES CONAB SAY?

Conab attributes the ‘good expectations’ for the 2021/22 crop to very different weather conditions in the producing regions.

“In general, crops continue to evolve, including the first areas being harvested in some locations. The different climatic conditions recorded among the many producing regions can generate variations in the yields obtained, but the expectation is still for a national result superior to that obtained in 2020/21, particularly due to the increase in area”, inform the company’s specialists in their report on January 11, 2022.

The soybean cultivated area estimated by Conab is 40.4 million hectares, 3.8% greater than the previous harvest, with an expected average yield of 57.96 bags per hectare (3478 kg/ha).

Conab

“The production estimate for the 2021/22 crop had an adjustment, going from 142.79 million tons to 140.5 million tons, driven by a reduction in the productivity estimate that was caused by adverse weather problems to the crop, mainly, in southern Brazil. It should be noted that this number is still an estimate of field data and may change in future surveys”.

>> Click here and access the files with complete information on the 4th Grain Harvest Survey 2021/2022

About Yadunandan Singh

Born in 1992, Yadunandan approaches the world of video games thanks to two sacred monsters like Diablo and above all Sonic, strictly in the Sega Saturn version. Ranging between consoles and PCs, he is particularly fond of platform titles and RPGs, not disdaining all other genres and moving in the constant search for the perfect balance between narration and interactivity.

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