trade sales grew 0.6% in November, compared to October, with a smaller impact from Black Friday and with supermarkets as the main highlight in the month, according to data released this Friday (14) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The October result was revised from a drop of 0.1% to a rise of 0.2%. As a result, the sector registered the second consecutive monthly high after two consecutive sharp declines.
With the advance registered in November, the Brazilian retail is 1.2% above pre-pandemic level, February 2020, but 5.1% below the record sales level achieved in November 2020.
Month-to-month retail sales — Photo: Economia g1
Compared to November 2020, there was a drop of 4.2%, the fourth consecutive negative rate.
Year-to-date, retail is up 1.9%.
In the 12-month period, it decelerated from 2.6% in October to 1.9% in November, signaling a reduction in the pace of sales and loss of dynamism in the sector. Of the 10 segments surveyed by IBGE, only 4 surpass the pre-pandemic level.
The loss of dynamism in the sector occurs in a context of loss of purchasing power of families and an increase in the indebtedness of Brazilians.
Nominal retail revenue rose 1.3% compared to October and increased 8.8% compared to November 2020.
Retail sales in the 12-month period — Photo: Economia g1
THE November result came better than expected. A Reuters survey pointed out that expectations were for declines of 0.2% on a monthly basis and 6.5% on a year earlier.
Even with the advance, more than half of the activities had a negative result in November.
See the performance of each of the segments, compared to October:
- Fuels and lubricants: -1.4%
- Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco: 0.9%
- Fabrics, clothing and footwear: -1.9%
- Furniture and appliances: -2.3%
- Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery items: 1.2%
- Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery: -1.4%
- Office, IT and communication equipment and supplies: -0.1%
- Other articles for personal and domestic use: 2.2%
- Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces: 0.7% (expanded retail)
- Building material: 0.8% (expanded retail)
In the expanded retail trade, which includes, in addition to retail, the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and construction material, the volume of sales increased by 0.5% in relation to October, after three consecutive months of decline, and had fall of 2.9% compared to the same month last year.
Distance (%) from pre-pandemic level by retail segment — Photo: Economy g1
High in the month driven by supermarkets
Five of the 8 retail trade activities fell in November. Retail advanced, mainly driven by the growth of supermarkets and food products (0.9%), which has a weight of around 45% in the index.
The sales volume of furniture and home appliances dropped 2.3%. There was also a decrease in the groups fabrics, apparel and footwear (-1.9%), fuels and lubricants (-1.4%) and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-1.4%), indicating a smaller impact from Black Friday 2021 in retail sales in November, amid anticipation of promotions and also the consumption of some products.
“What we saw was a much less intense Black Friday, in terms of sales volume, than in 2020, when this period of promotions was better, especially for the largest retail chains”, analyzes the research manager, Cristiano Santos. . “This is partly due to inflation, but also to a change in the consumption profile, as some purchases were made in October or even in the first semester, when there was greater availability of credit and the phenomenon of discounts,” he added. .
In the reading against the result of November 2020, 7 of the eight activities had negative ratess, with emphasis on furniture and household appliances (-21.5%), fuels and lubricants (-7.1%), other articles for personal and domestic use (-2.6%) and fabrics, clothing and footwear (-4 .4%).
Even the supermarket sector had a retraction compared to 2020, (-0.5%), accumulating a fall of 2.9% in the partial of the year and a decrease of 2.3% in 12 months.
The only increase was in sales of pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic, perfumery and cosmetic articles (2.5%).
Sales fall in 14 of the 27 federation units
Sales fell in November in 14 of the 27 federation units, especially Paraíba (-3.1%), Piauí (-3.0%) and Bahia (-2.8%). On the side of increases, the main increases were registered in Roraima (3.7%), Rio de Janeiro (2.8%) and Federal District (2.7%).
“Retail activities have been hampered by very pressured inflation, low wages, tightening financial conditions and shifting a greater proportion of household spending from the goods market to services (in the wake of the economic reopening). Therefore, we do not interpret the positive surprise with sales performance in November as a sign of a trend reversal”, evaluated Rodolfo Margato, economist at XP.
The day before, the IBGE showed that the service sector grew 2.4% in November, after 2 consecutive months of losses, being 4.5% above the pre-pandemic level. The industry, on the other hand, had the sixth consecutive monthly retraction in November and dropped to a level 4.3% below the pre-pandemic level.
After entering a technical recession in the 3rd quarter, the economy continued to show weakness in the final stretch of 2021 amid a context of soaring inflation, high interest rates, falling family incomes, increased indebtedness, still high unemployment and concerns about the public accounts situation.
Business confidence fell in December for the second consecutive month, to the lowest level since May, according to the FGV index.
At the beginning of the year, the Brazilian economy, especially the more face-to-face activities, was once again impacted by the advance of the ômicron variant of the coronavirus, with the cancellation of flights, removal of employees, new restrictions on the public imposed by the authorities and lower circulation of people in the cities. streets and offices.
The market projects an advance of around 4.50% for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2021. The growth forecast for 2022 is only 0.28%, and some analysts even speak of retraction.
For inflation, the expectation is for a rate of 5.03% in 2022, which would be an overflow of the target ceiling for the second year in a row, after the IPCA recorded a jump of 10.06% in 2021. The economy’s basic interest rate at the end of 2022 is at 11.75% per year.
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