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bolsonaro Lula

President Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva lead the January Ipespe poll| Photo: Alan Santos/PR and Fabio Rodrigues Pozzebom/Agência Brasil

The first electoral poll of the Ipespe institute of 2022 brings former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the lead of the presidential race, with 44% of voting intentions. Next, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), with 24%, followed by ex-judge Sergio Moro (Podemos), with 9%, and Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 7%.

Ipespe also tested a second scenario, in which the name of Sergio Moro was left out of the dispute and Senator Alessandro Vieira (Cidadania-SE) was included. In this case, former president Lula repeated the 44%, followed by Bolsonaro, with 25%, and Ciro Gomes, with 9%.

In the second round simulations, the survey shows that, if the elections were held today, ex-president Lula would win in all tested scenarios. President Bolsonaro does not appear ahead in any simulation.

See below all Ipespe electoral poll numbers.

First round

Scene 1

  • Lula (PT) – 44%
  • Bolsonaro (PL) – 24%
  • I live (We can) – 9%
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 7%
  • João Doria (PSDB) – 2%
  • Simone Tebet (MDB) – 1%
  • Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD) – 1%
  • Felipe D’Ávila (New) – 1%
  • Blanks and Nulls – 6%
  • Don’t know – 7%

Scenario 2

  • Lula (PT) – 44%
  • Bolsonaro (PL) – 25%
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 9%
  • João Doria (PSDB) – 3%
  • Simone Tebet (MDB) – 2%
  • Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD) – 1%
  • Alessandro Vieira (Citizenship) – 1%
  • Felipe D’Ávila (New) – 1%
  • Arms and Nulls – 11%
  • Don’t know – 5%

second round

Lula x Bolsonaro

  • Squid – 56%
  • Bolsonaro – 31%

Lula x Moro

Lula x Doria

Lula vs Ciro Gomes

  • Squid – 51%
  • Ciro Gomes – 25%

Bolsonaro vs Ciro Gomes

  • Ciro Gomes – 43%
  • Bolsonaro – 34%

Bolsonaro x Doria

  • Doria – 42%
  • Bolsonaro – 35%

Bolsonaro x Moro

  • I live – 36%
  • Bolsonaro – 29%

Research methodology

The Ipespe survey (formerly Ibope), commissioned by XP Investimentos, was registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-09080/2022. 1,000 voters were interviewed between the 10th and 12th of January. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The confidence index is 95.5%.

Why does Gazeta do Povo publish polls

THE People’s Gazette for years, it has published all the polls of the intention to vote carried out by the main institutes of public opinion in the country. You can check the most recent surveys at this link, as well as articles on the subject.

Intent polls take a moment reading, based on representative samples of the population. Interview methods, the composition and number of the sample and even the way a question is asked are factors that can influence the result. That is why it is important to pay attention to the information on methodologies, found at the end of the People’s Gazette on election polls.

Having made these considerations, the Gazeta considers that the polls, far from being a prediction of the outcome of the elections, are an information tool available to the reader, since the published results have the potential to influence the decisions of parties, political leaders and even even the moods of the financial market.

About Abhishek Pratap

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