After the release of data on services and industry in November, financial agents passed on this Friday (14) the numbers of retail sales. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), retail trade increased by 0.6% from October to November last year.
In the annual comparison, retail fell 4.2%. Both data came in above expectations. The expectation, according to the Refinitiv consensus, was that retail sales would remain stable on a monthly basis and fall by 6.5% compared to the same month in 2020.
Despite the improvement in numbers, economists highlighted that retail trade should continue to be impacted by the advance of inflation and higher interest rates in the country.
Meanwhile, on the external scene, financial agents monitor the advance of US Treasury bond yields. The rise has been driven by a tougher stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is the US central bank. Today, however, retail sales and industrial production data in December in the country frustrated economists.
In this context, the market for public securities traded on the Treasury Direct continues without a single direction this Friday afternoon (14). Only the interest paid by the Fixed Rate Treasury 2024 advance from 11.43%, in the previous session, to 11.47%, at 15:20. This percentage was the same seen earlier in the day.
Meanwhile, the other papers show a decline in rates or are traded close to stability, as is the case of Prefixed 2026, which offered a remuneration of 11.18% per year, at 3:20 pm, the same value seen the day before. Today, in the morning, the rates paid for this paper went up even more.
Among inflation-linked papers, in the second update of the afternoon, the Treasury IPCA+ 2035 and 2045 were the only securities that fell by up to 4 basis points (0.04 percentage point). At that time, both offered real interest of 5.60% per year, against 5.62% per year, at the beginning of business. This percentage is lower than the 5.64% seen the day before.
The IPCA+ 2055 Treasury with coupon payment, in turn, offered a real rate of 5.66% per year, in line with the 5.67% per year registered yesterday.
Check the prices and rates of all public securities available for purchase at the Treasury Direct that were offered this Friday afternoon (14):
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On the local economic agenda, attention is focused on retail trade numbers. The IBGE highlighted today that, even with the advance on the monthly basis, more than half of the activities had a negative result in the period. In the year, retail accumulates a high of 1.9% and in the last twelve months, also growth of 1.9%.
“What we saw was a much less intense Black Friday, in terms of sales volume, than in 2020, when this period of promotions was better, especially for the largest retail chains,” said survey manager Cristiano Santos. .
When analyzing the numbers, Genial specialists José Márcio Camargo, Eduardo Ferman, Yihao Lin and Perla Rocha highlighted that there was an increase of 1.3% in the sector’s nominal revenue from October to November, especially in the fuel sector.
According to them, this may indicate that the inflationary process has been impacting sales volume. “The acceleration of inflation has been the main villain of the sector, since it reduces the purchasing power of families”, punctuated the analysts in a report.
Rodolfo Margato, economist at XP, also added that retail has been hampered by low wages, tightening financial conditions and shifting a greater proportion of household spending from the goods market to services, with the reopening of the economy.
“So we don’t interpret the positive surprise with the performance of sales in November as a sign of a trend reversal”, says Margato. According to the economist, even if the credit market statistics remain solid, the combination of high interest rates and the increasing commitment of household income tend to dampen loans throughout 2022.
In the expanded retail trade, the IBGE reported that there was a growth of 0.5% in the volume of sales in November. The increase was influenced by the positive rates of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (0.7%) and construction material (0.8%), after the negative results of the previous month, of -0.4% and -0, 8%, respectively.
On the political scene, investors monitor newspaper article Folha de S.Paulo which states that the Federal Government is considering raising the value of the electoral fund again for this year and redeeming the amount that had been initially established by Congress, of R$ 5.7 billion.
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The amount that was approved by deputies and senators in this year’s Budget provides for a smaller amount of R$ 4.9 billion.
According to the newspaper, the president’s assistants understand that the Government needs to increase the amount because it is provided for in the rule of the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). Otherwise, says leaf, the interpretation is that Bolsonaro would risk breaking the law.
Meanwhile, on the external scene, the American indices operate with retreat, around 15:20 (Brasilia time) this Friday (14). The market reflects data on retail sales in the United States, which fell 1.9% from November to December, according to the Commerce Department. The consensus was for a fall of 0.1%.
Likewise, industrial production in the same month was frustrated by falling 0.1%, as reported by the Federal Reserve, which is the American central bank. Analysts’ expectations pointed to a rise of 0.3%,
Financial agents are also digesting yesterday’s speech by Lael Brainard, vice president of the Fed, to the US Senate. The speech was seen as tougher on the conduct of monetary policy in the United States.
At the time, Brainard said that the Fed must finalize the tapering, the purchase of assets, already in the first quarter of this year and that, at the end of this process, the monetary authority will be ready to raise interest rates.
The speech differed from the one presented by Jerome Powell, president of the United States, the day before, also in the Senate. At the time, stocks rose, after an interpretation that the stimulus cut could be less aggressive.
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