In a scenario where Ômicron is controlled and new variants do not appear, the estimate is that the global demand for Petroleum rise to 99.8 million barrels per day (b/d), in 2022, 280,000 b/d above 2019. With this, the forecast is that the average price of Brent can reach levels of US$ 90 to US$ 100/barrel in 2022.
In 2021, countries faced high fuel prices with different policies. Large exporting countries with low consumption once again played a role similar to that of the first and second oil shocks, increasing their revenue from oil and more than ever they continued the policy of selling fuel at very low prices, unrelated to the market. The example is the countries of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Developed countries that have strong currencies have adopted the policy of following increases in the barrel of oil, as they are protected from the exchange rate effect. Even so, the United States, in 2021, put oil reserves on the market in an attempt to contain gasoline prices. European countries such as Portugal, created a policy of returning to the consumer a portion of the gasoline and diesel prices paid at the pump. THE France it reduced taxes and now, with the price of gas very high in winter, it has established a subsidy policy. Another group of countries that are not exporters and have exchange rate problems used stabilization funds. It is the case of Colombia, Peru, Norway, Chile and others.
And Brazil? We are alone in the discussion since going back to the old and wrong practice of using the Petrobras, tax reductions, creation of the stabilization fund, wrong solutions, such as the export tax on oil, and it was only at the end of the year that we managed to create Vale Gás.
And in 2022? Three scenarios: if the price of oil stays at US$ 80/barrel, the price of gasoline in the Brazil should grow 13.4%, compared to 2021, reaching almost BRL 7/liter, assuming an exchange rate of BRL 5.60. If the price per barrel is US$ 90, the increase will be 27.5% and the liter will reach more than R$ 8; at US$ 100/barrel, the increase would be 41.7% and the liter of gasoline could reach R$ 10. In relation to diesel, with oil at US$ 80, the increase will be something like 13.4% and the price per liter, R$ 6; at US$ 90 a barrel, the increase will be 27.5%; at US$ 100 a barrel, the increase will be 41.7% and a liter of diesel, respectively, R$ 7 and R$ 8. How will we face this scenario?
What will be the reaction of Congress, federal and state governments in an election year? And the presidential candidates, how will they position themselves? To check.
* DIRECTOR OF THE BRAZILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE CENTER (CBIE)