PDE 2031 signals 75 GW of expansion in the decade



Projection is for investments of R$ 528 billion, centralized generation should jump from 179 GW to 220 GW at the end of the period

The Ministry of Mines and Energy launched this Monday, January 24th, Public Consultation nº 119/2022, to improve the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2031. Contributions can be made until February 23, using the form available on the MME website. The PDE’s initial forecast is for investments of R$ 528 billion in electricity in the period. Centralized generation will have most of the resources, with R$ 292 billion, followed by distributed generation, with R$ 135 billion. The transmission will have 101 billion. Adding the values ​​of oil, gas and biofuels, the PDE signals investments of R$ 3.2 trillion.

In terms of generation, the PDE draft highlights that the year 2021 was marked by the water crisis that mainly affected the Southeast/Center-West subsystem. Installed capacity should jump from 200 GW in 2021 to 275 GW in 2031. Of the total, 229 GW or 83% will come from renewable sources, while 46 GW, or 17%, will come from non-renewable sources.

The forecast of the plan is that the centralized generation will grow 41 GW until 2031, going to 220 GW. The PDE also predicts that distributed generation will have a big leap in 2031, from the current 8 GW to 37 GW, fully renewable. Self-production will grow by 5 GW in the period, reaching 18 GW.

By source, the expansion of PDE 2031 brings an indication of 4,947 MW in UHEs, of which 4,297 MW will be obtained through the modernization of existing plants in all regions of Brazil and even more a 650 MW plant in the North region. The amount of UHEs already contracted until 2031 is only 245 MW. For SHPs and CGHs, the indicative is 2,700 MW in the Southeast/Midwest and South subsystems. The source already has 635 MW contracted in 47 plants mainly in the South, Southeast and Center-West regions. In total, the water source should decrease to less than half of the entire national electrical matrix.

The 2031 indicator for non-renewable UTEs is 25,024 MW, with 22,624 MW from natural gas plants in all regions, 1,000 MW from nuclear thermal plants in the Southeast and 1,400 MW from coal-fired thermal plants in the South. 3 appears as a contractor. The non-renewable UTEs will have 700 MW, of which 400 MW will be from sugarcane bagasse plants and 300 MW from urban solid waste in the SE/CO subsystem.

Wind power, the source that has developed the most in the last decade, is expected to expand by 10,689 MW, with 6,345 MW contracted in 183 parks and an indication of another 4,344 MW, with a focus on the Northeast. The planned expansion for solar is 5,814 MW, with 3,114 MW contracted in the Northeast and Southeast and an indication of another 2,700 MW in the SE/CO subsystem.

The signaling for transmission is 33,633 km. There are 17,361 kilometers expected to come into operation by 2026. The socio-environmental analysis of 269 LTs shows 25,086 kilometers in length, spread over 4,686 km in the North, 3,917 km in the Northeast, 1,524 km in the Midwest, 9,951 km in the Southeast and 5,008 km. in the south.

In terms of natural gas, the demand for UTEs considers existing facilities, the exit of plants at the end of the contracts and the contracting of new thermal plants. On the horizon of the study, the entry into operation of UTEs Marlim Azul, GNA II, Barcarena, Ocelot, Prosperidade II, among others, is expected. UTEs winning energy auctions in 2021 are also predicted. The projection of gas demand is calculated with the sum of the projections of non-thermoelectric demand and thermoelectric demand.

At the end of the period, the ratio between the average demand and the maximum demand has increased in relation to historical values, due to the entry of UTEs with a higher percentage of inflexibility. The ten-year plan provides for two transport pipelines. one predicted in Rio de Janeiro and one indicative in Ceará. In the flow, there will be three gas pipelines, one is already planned in the Southeast and two indicative, in the Southeast and Northeast.

About Yadunandan Singh

Born in 1992, Yadunandan approaches the world of video games thanks to two sacred monsters like Diablo and above all Sonic, strictly in the Sega Saturn version. Ranging between consoles and PCs, he is particularly fond of platform titles and RPGs, not disdaining all other genres and moving in the constant search for the perfect balance between narration and interactivity.

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