Fed, foreign exchanges up, IPCA-15 January and what else you need to know to invest well today

After a lot of tension in the world stock exchanges around the meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank of the United States) finally decides, this Wednesday (26), the direction of monetary policy in the largest economy in the world. Interest rates will be kept close to zero, but the question that keeps investors awake is: what signals will be sent about the bank’s balance sheet reduction? Will the institution give clues about the amount of increases in the base rate in 2022?

Experts are almost unanimous in their bet that the Fed will signal that the bullish cycle starts as early as March, but there is no consensus on what it will say about the balance sheet itself – in practice, selling bonds is equivalent to removing the dollars injected during the crisis years.

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For emerging countries like Brazil, this is usually bad news, as less liquidity and higher interest rates in the US detract from the attractiveness of assets considered riskier. However, the Brazilian market has been resisting the volatility caused by this movement due to the reduction of interest in China, which benefits our commodities and attracts foreign investments interested in protection.

The decision will be released at 4:00 pm, and at 4:30 pm the president of the American central bank, Jerome Powell, gives a press conference.

International stocks go up

Despite this, the main stock indices abroad operate higher this morning, after the strong losses observed recently due to the imminent monetary tightening in the US. The US Nasdaq Composite index alone has dropped 13.5% this year.

According to Danske Bank, market expectations regarding the Fed’s decision keep in the background, at least for now, concerns about the potential consequences of an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the increase in Covid-19 cases.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index, which brings together large companies in the euro zone, rose 2.31%. In the United States, futures contracts on the main indexes were also up – Dow Jones was up 0.95%, S&P 500 was up 1.34% and Nasdaq was up 2.00%.

IPCA-January 15

Here, at 9 am, all eyes will be on the release of the IPCA-15 (Broad Consumer Price Index). The expectation is that the indicator slows down the high registered in the same period of December. If the index shows a greater expansion, the scenario of a new high of 1.5 percentage points at the next Copom meeting (Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank), which takes place next week, will be reinforced.

There are other important announcements on the Brazilian agenda. At 9:30 am, the Central Bank releases the note on Brazil’s transactions abroad in December, and at 2:30 pm the Monthly Report on the Treasury’s Public Debt in December will be released.

In the US, at 12:30 pm, the Department of Energy releases the accumulated inventories of crude oil up to January 21 – the data may affect quotations.

About Yadunandan Singh

Born in 1992, Yadunandan approaches the world of video games thanks to two sacred monsters like Diablo and above all Sonic, strictly in the Sega Saturn version. Ranging between consoles and PCs, he is particularly fond of platform titles and RPGs, not disdaining all other genres and moving in the constant search for the perfect balance between narration and interactivity.

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