The president of the Scientific Council of Ipespe, Antonio Lavareda, says it is too early to determine whether the presidential elections will be “bipolarized” – that is, led by two candidates – or “triangular” – with three candidates reaching 10 percentage points. The performance of former president Lula, however, “is surprising”, according to the political scientist.
In the so-called 3rd way, the challenges are enormous. Ipespe survey released this Thursday 27th shows that Sergio Moro and Ciro Gomes share the 3rd position, with 8% each. Lula, the leader, reaches 44%, followed by Jair Bolsonaro, with 24% in the main scenario of the 1st round.
US 2nd shift drawings monitored by the institute, Lula would beat all opponents by a difference of at least 19 points. Bolsonaro, in turn, would lose to all competitors.
In an interview with Capital LetterLavareda said that Moro’s situation “should frustrate supporters”, after the growth registered with his affiliation to Podemos and the launch of his pre-candidacy in November.
“But it is necessary to remember that Moro’s basic theme, in the public’s mind, is the fight against corruption, the Lava Jato thing,” said the president of Ipespe, who sees Bolsonaro’s former judge and former minister dependent on an alliance with União Brasil to try to leverage the candidacy.
Thus, Moro needs to take “the issue of corruption” back to the center of the major media and electoral debate, which, at this point, seems unlikely, given the economic deterioration of the country under Bolsonaro’s government.
Another competitor in the 3rd way is Ciro Gomes, who, according to Lavareda, could be “quite competitive” in a scenario without Lula.
“When Lula’s candidacy was rehabilitated, there was a deep blow to the prospects for success of Ciro’s project”, evaluates the political scientist. With Lula’s entry into the electoral game, the pedetista “went to try to seek votes from the center and center-right, showing that he was a blunt critic of Lula and the PT”. However, Moro has already managed to snatch part of those votes that Ciro would win.
“So Ciro declines. It had 11% until October, Sergio Moro came, who went to 11% and Ciro went to 9%. In December and early January, Ciro drops more, to 7%. The recent release [da pré-candidatura] gave him a point and found the decline of Moro.”
Lavareda points out that Ciro started the campaign on the left, frequented the center-right and now courtes left-wing youth, with the slogan of the “rebel candidate”.
“A more attentive analyst will get torticollis”, says the president of Ipespe.
The fact that Bolsonaro remains in 2nd place even with the economic disaster and the failure to face the pandemic does not indicate, according to Lavareda’s perception, something surprisingly positive for the former captain.
“When you have an incumbent candidate, he is naturally doomed to be in the 2nd round. The election, when it counts on the incumbent, is about the performance of his government”, he says. “It is natural that he has a significant electoral expression. Now, he is 10 points away from the 1st round performance he had in 2018. He basically lost 30% of his votes, in net balance.”
The leader of the Ipespe survey maintains a “surprising” performance, according to Antonio Lavareda. The PT now has the challenge of “consolidating and rooting this voting intention”.
The room for growth is demonstrated by the difference of 9 percentage points between the PT’s performance in the stimulated poll (in which the names of candidates are listed to voters) and in the spontaneous poll.
“His campaign needs to deepen this preference so that he loses as little as possible in voting intentions.”
Read the full Ipespe survey: