posted on 01/28/2022 19:36 / updated on 01/28/2022 19:38
(credit: Gerd Altmann by Pixabay)
Although the week has been positive for the national financial market, this Friday (28/1), statements by former President Lula (PT) about Petrobras’ pricing policy ended up reflecting a fall in the shares of companies that were consecutive rises.
“We don’t have to be worried about (Petrobras’) profit. Why, instead of paying dividends to shareholders, we don’t invest in refineries? Fuels cannot continue to be subordinated to international prices”, said the former president, who occupies the first place in the polls for the presidency in the 2022 elections.
With that, Petrobras saw the shares fall, respectively, -2.97% and -3.96%. Other retail and consumer companies also felt the impact of the noise. This was the case of Magazine Luiza, which led the rise in the trading session the day before and this Friday lost -7.06%, of Americanas (-6.16%); Assaí (-1.36%); Natura (-6.48%); Espadrilles (-4.83%); and Ambev (-3.05%). The Ibovespa closed the trading session with 111,910 points, down -0.62%. The dollar had another drop, 0.61%, closing at R$5.39 reais, the lowest value since October 1, 2021 (R$5.36).
Despite the noise and amid expectations of high inflation, with a forecast for the Selic at 11.75% by the end of 2022, the financial market should continue to go against the grain of American markets, with a very intense foreign flow next week, assesses the expert. Flávio de Oliveira, head of equity at Zahl Investimentos.
“In the absence of major bad news regarding our domestic market and with a better public deficit in Brazil than we expected, our expectations remain constructive for the local market and we continue to believe that the stock market can have an upward trajectory. ”, says Oliveira.
Anyway, the market has already put the next interest rate hike on the radar. The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meets at the beginning of February and the expectation is that the basic interest rate will increase by 1.5 points, to 10.75% per year. Even so, Flávio de Oliveira explains that the real is still considerably depreciated against the dollar and Brazilian assets trading at extremely low multiples are attractive factors for investors from other countries. In addition, according to the specialist, there is an absence of the flow of sellers, since there were many sales of shares and shares of local investors who migrated to fixed income at the end of 2021.
“This flow weakens and is apparently stopping, while the foreign flow remains strong and this is what is carrying our market upwards and should continue at least at current price levels, in a constructive scenario, at least until the end of positive February” , explains the expert.
The uncertainties around how and at what pace the interest rate increase in the United States will take place should keep the international market in an atmosphere of apprehension, explains Flávio de Oliveira. In the expert’s opinion, even though the Federal Reserve – FED (American central bank system) has begun to make tangible the increase in interest rates in the American market, which was already on the market’s radar, some speeches by Jerome H. Powell, president of the FED, were worrying.
“He (Jerome) only said that the process of rising (in interest rates) would begin, but he did not detail much, especially from 2023, how many increases would be and what would be the rhythm of these increases, which generated discomfort in the market. In general, what dominates the international market is the risk of inflation, which means an increase in interest rates and ends up penalizing the stock exchanges”, he explains.
Another relevant factor that may reflect on the stock exchanges, next week, is the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, which remains without a definitive end. “This type of conflict can generate an increase in the price of energy commodities, such as oil, and ends up affecting global inflation, this is a negative point for the next week”, says Oliveira.