External risk search encourages Ibovespa, options expiration day, Fed and Copom Por Estadão

© Reuters. External search for risk encourages Ibovespa, on option expiration day, Fed and Copom

International risk appetite boosts trading after four trading sessions down. Investors react to expectations of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which should be resumed this Super Wednesday, the day when the results of the monetary policy meetings in the United States and Brazil will be released.

In addition, it alleviates the news that China will adopt policies favorable to capital markets and take measures to avoid and circumvent risks in the real estate sector. The oil reacted up 6.65% to $145.24 a tonne at the Chinese port of Qingdao.

“It started better but is delivering a little because of the possibility of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine”, evaluates Caio Kanaan Eboli, partner and operational director of the proprietary desk Axia Investing.

The improvement in mood abroad encourages the Ibovespa, which is targeting the range of 111 thousand points and continues to renew highs in this first hour of trading. The rise in the index covers a large part of the portfolio, with emphasis on stocks linked to the metallic sector, especially Vale (SA:), of almost 3.5%.

The reduction in risk aversion is also seen in , which drops to the range of R$5,139. Petrobras (SA:) also advanced, around 0.20%, in the wake of the . Ore also closed higher.

However, the expiration of options on the index can generate some instability. In addition, there is the wait for monetary policy decisions by the (Fed, the US central bank) (in the afternoon) and by the , in the early evening.

The appreciation of the Bovespa index comes after having closed yesterday at 108,959.30 points, down 0.88%, the lowest closing level since January 24 (107,937.11). Therefore, analysts point out that it would be important to resume the mark of 112 thousand points, in order to avoid worsening.

“It would be good to look for 115,000 points. It went to 109,000 points and that is dangerous. If you keep the 111,000 points, you will be left out. To gain an uptrend, you need to go above 115,000 points”, evaluates Eboli.

Abroad, emphasis is given to the statement made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. He said an “entrepreneurial spirit” is taking shape in negotiations with Ukraine, which are now seeking to establish a neutral status for the country invaded by the Russians.

According to MCM Consultores, the positive comments from Russian authorities about an agreement with Ukraine and the promises of China’s economic leaders to adopt measures to stimulate the economy and support local markets have a positive impact on risky assets. “Fed meeting will be the highlight of the agenda in the US. ‘hawkish’ speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could negatively impact markets”, quotes the note.

In Brazil, the expectation is that the Copom will raise the rate from 10.75% to 11.75% per year, today, leaving the door open for the next steps, assesses in a report the chief economist at BV, Roberto Padovani, for ” We are in an unstable environment.”

The new criticisms by President Jair Bolsonaro of Petrobras are still on the radar. After renewing criticism of the state-owned company for having announced the readjustment of fuels before the approval, by Congress, of changes in ICMS on diesel and cooking gas, the chief executive said that the state-owned company “with all certainty” will reduce prices in the face of the fall. in the price of oil in the international market.

At 11 am, the Ibovespa rose 1.69% to 110,799.06 points, compared to a daily high of 111,037.85 points (up 1.91%).

About Abhishek Pratap

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