What are the conditions for Russia and Ukraine to reach a ceasefire agreement? – News

THE war between Russia and Ukraine turned one month this week, and President Vladimir Putin’s plans for a quick and accurate offensive have not materialized. The Ukrainian population and army have resisted since the day February, 24 and are managing to prevent enemy troops from occupying the capital Kiev. In this scenario, between the constant Russian attacks and a series of Western sanctions against Moscow, what would be the path to a ceasefire agreement?

For Igor Lucena, a specialist at the University of Lisbon and a member of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, the first month of the conflict was marked by internal and external pressures for both countries and radical demands that impede the success of the negotiations.

“We see pressure on Ukraine from a military point of view and, on the other hand, Russia sees economic sanctions bringing down its economy. Negotiations become frequent, but there is no agreement because there are no concessions,” she explains.


After the political and economic isolation of the country, the expert believes that Putin wants to find a way out only through a victory. “That would provide a justification for the withdrawal of troops, as he is also interested in the end of the war. But for that, there needs to be gains.”

“Russia wants to get all kinds of concessions from Ukraine and it will not give up now, this exit would be very bad for Putin’s image. Furthermore, without any victory, the country would suffer a very strong political blow, in addition to all sanctions.”

Despite Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky’s declaration that the country “has to accept that it will not become a member of NATO”, this is still the main Russian justification for the continued military offensive.

In addition to the impasse of entering the military alliance, Russia demands recognition of the independence of the Crimean peninsula, annexed in 2014, and the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, a sensitive point of Ukraine’s territorial unity and one of the most difficult issues to be negotiated. , according to Lucena.

For the expert, the concession on the part of Russia could be to accept Ukraine’s entry into the European Union, but without Moscow interfering with the neighboring country’s autonomy.


Over the past few weeks, 1,035 civilians have died in Ukraine, according to the United Nations. In addition, the UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) reported that more than 3.6 million people left the country, in addition to the more than 10 million who lost their homes. In this context, Lucena points out that internal pressure has increased on the Ukrainian president.

“Zelenski sees the decrease in political support and also part of the population is already wondering to what extent they can withstand this situation”, he says.

“The country, however, cannot follow the line of concessions to Russia to achieve an end to the conflict, because there would practically be an indirect annexation of the entire state to Russian interest. Ukraine would be lost as an independent nation and would ratify Russia’s power to invade another nation with any pretext to force it to obey its will.”

The expert explains that a ceasefire agreement from the Ukrainian point of view is important to protect those who remain in the country fighting or resisting enemy troops. Today, the protection of the territory is guaranteed both by professional military personnel and by civilians who have mobilized to fight.

“It is very important that the Ukrainians reach an agreement so that the people who are dying for the preservation of the nation do not die in vain”, adds Lucena.

the search for peace

Western countries are looking for diplomatic avenues for the conflict to come to an end and an agreement to be accepted by both sides. The other strategy is to use sanctions against Russia to cause damage and try to make the conflict economically unfeasible.

NATO, on the other hand, began to mobilize to protect its members in Eastern Europe, but without an effective role in the war. On Thursday (24), the secretary general of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, announced that he will increase troops in the region and confirmed support for Ukraine’s self-defense.

The alliance is pressured by Zelensky and the Ukrainian population to close the country’s airspace and thus prevent Russian bombings that are destroying cities and killing innocent civilians, but there has been no progress in this regard.

“The attacks will only stop when there is some kind of concession for an agreement. Part of Russian pressure is the strategy of attacking, but at the same time sitting at the negotiating table”, concludes Lucena.

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