What consequences would Sweden and Finland join NATO have?

The US State Department confirmed last week that NATO maintains diplomatic contact with Sweden and Finland.

The statements coincided with the publication of a report by the Finnish Parliament which concluded that NATO membership could result in “increased tensions on the border between Finland and Russia”.

Moscow has warned both Finland and Sweden that, if they decide to join the alliance, it could strengthen their defenses in the region, including the deployment of nuclear weapons.

According to analysts consulted by BBC News Brazil, a possible accession of the Nordic countries to NATO will have as main consequences an increase in NATO territory and its border with Russia, in addition to the feasibility of better strategic conditions for the alliance to defend the Baltic States.

“Both countries would still see a long – for Sweden, especially long – period of military non-alignment (and before that, neutrality) end forever. This is a very big shift in identity and self-perception,” says Hanna Ojanen, professor from the National Defense University of Finland and a researcher at Tampere University.

All this would still mean a considerable increase in tension with Russia.

Sweden and Finland were part of a movement in favor of neutrality during the Cold War, seeking to align themselves neither with the axis led by the former Soviet Union (USSR) nor with the Americans and NATO.

Neutrality was interrupted, however, when the two countries joined the European Union in 1995. Since the mid-1990s, the nations have also been members of NATO.

Stockholm and Helsinki’s formal accession to the alliance, however, would place both governments under the umbrella of greater protection of the bloc.

Under Article 5 of the treaty that governs NATO, the members of the alliance are committed to defending each other in the event of an armed attack against any of them. And with the invasion of Ukraine, fears of further advances by the Kremlin grow among neighboring countries.

Finland shares a 1,300 km border with Russia. The country, which gained its independence from the Russians in 1917, fought an invasion by the USSR in 1939 in what became known as the Winter War.

Helsinki signed an Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance with the Soviets in 1948, through which it managed to consolidate its independence and the survival of its liberal democracy.

Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said Russia’s war in Ukraine had changed the security environment in Europe and forced a review of national defense policy.

The Social Democratic Party of Sanna Marin traditionally advocates a policy of non-alignment and neutrality. Recent opinion polls, however, show that support for NATO membership rose from 28% in February to 62% last month among the local population, reflecting fears of a new Russian advance.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson told a news conference that given the current situation in Ukraine, “we have to really think about what is best for Sweden and our security and our peace in this new situation.”

According to Caroline Holmqvist, professor of War Studies at the Swedish Defense University, there is a general understanding that a Finnish decision to formalize the candidacy to join NATO would be immediately followed by Sweden.

“There is a long-standing very close collaboration between Sweden and Finland and strong indications that the decisions should be similar and respected by Sweden,” he says.

It seems so far, the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO is likely to cause an increase in tension with Russia. And Moscow’s distaste can be expressed both towards the two Nordic countries and against the military alliance itself.

One of the main reasons that led Vladimir Putin to proceed with the invasion of Ukraine is his fear of NATO. For Moscow, the United States and Western Europe use the alliance to encircle Russia, so it has demanded that the organization cease its military activities in Eastern Europe.

And if Finland, in particular, joins NATO, the Kremlin would suddenly find Russia suddenly sharing an additional 1,300 km border with the alliance.

In February, after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Sweden and Finland for their support in their fight against the Russians, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that a possible Finnish entry into NATO “would have serious military and policies”.

After the Swedish and Finnish leaders met in Stockholm, Moscow raised the tone even further.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would consider “a series of measures” drawn up by the country’s Defense Ministry. Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko also said Finland and Sweden will face “the most unintended consequences” if they join the military alliance, according to Russian news agency Tass.

On Thursday (14/4), another Russian spokesperson touched on the matter. Former president and member of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev has hinted that his country could even use nuclear weapons if Nordic nations join NATO.

One of Putin’s closest men, Medvedev, said that “there can be no more talk of a Baltic free of nuclear weapons. The balance has to be restored. Until today, Russia had not adopted these measures and did not plan to adopt them. But , if we are forced… Remember: it was not us who proposed this”, he said.

For Niklas Helwig, professor at the Finnish Institute of International Relations (FIIA), the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO would definitively change their relationship with Russia.

“Finland has been emphasizing its good-neighborly relationship with Russia, despite growing tensions. But it is to be expected that NATO membership will put the relationship between the two countries in antagonistic positions,” he says.

“In practice, this could mean Russian provocations through cyber and disinformation campaigns.”

The Finnish government itself recognizes the risks. In a report delivered to the country’s parliament, the administration of Sanna Marin says that if Finland and Sweden become full members of NATO, “the threshold for the use of military force in the Baltic Sea region would increase”, increasing “the long-term stability of the region”.

The report also warns that “military force can only be used against Finland” and that the security situation in Europe and Finland today is more serious and more difficult to predict than at any time since the Cold War.

But, according to Caroline Holmqvist, it is not possible to foresee any action by Putin.

“Even observers who followed the situation more closely did not expect such a sudden invasion of Ukraine. So it is very difficult to predict, at the moment, what will be the next steps of Putin, who is increasingly isolated and concentrates all decisions in your next hands”, he says.

“But the idea that the closest military threat to Sweden would come from Russia has always been in the national psyche. Russia is the major military actor in the region.”

The report submitted to the Finnish Parliament says the “most significant effect” of NATO membership “would be that Finland would be part of NATO’s collective defense and would be covered by security guarantees”.

The document also mentions the deterrent effect of NATO membership, which would be to be “considerably stronger than it is currently, as it would build on the capabilities of the entire alliance”.

He also notes that if Finland joined the bloc, it would be forced to spend up to 1.5% more of its budget on defense, but recognizes that membership would offer the country a greater ability to protect itself.

Finland has already announced a 40% increase in its defense budget until 2026. Sweden also plans to increase spending in the area by around SEK 3 billion later this year.

For the experts consulted by BBC News Brazil, the two countries have already demonstrated their ability to defend themselves. But joining NATO would be a way to avoid conflict in the first place.

“Finland already has a very capable army, with plans to defend itself without assistance in the event of a Russian attack. This capability was demonstrated recently by the Finnish purchase of 65 F35 jets from the United States,” says Niklas Helwig.

“The idea is that Finnish membership of NATO could prevent Russia from an armed aggression against Finland, as Moscow would have no interest in a direct confrontation with NATO.”

Hanna Ojanen further explains that both Finland and Sweden are already treated as close allies of the organization and are already part of many of the alliance’s activities.

“The main difference is that NATO defense planning would be extended to these countries and they would participate in the defense of other NATO countries if necessary,” he says.

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