Elections in France: Rejection of Le Pen could guarantee victory for Macron

In the case of Le Pen, 42% say they adhere to the radical right candidate’s ideas and 38% aim to prevent Macron from being reelected. The remaining 20% ​​say they trust the Réunion Nacional candidate (formerly the National Front).

The same poll indicates 56% for Macron and 44% for Le Pen in the second round. Overall, Macron leads the latest polls with 53% to 57.5% of the vote against 42.5% to 47% for Le Pen. In 2017, Macron beat Le Pen by 32 percentage points.

“Nothing is guaranteed”, declared the president on Thursday (21/4) as a way of mobilizing the electorate.

One of Macron’s challenges is to seduce the left-wing electorate, especially Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical left who won almost 22% in the first round, and who will play a crucial role in Sunday’s result. Mélenchon declared that “not a vote should be given to Le Pen”, but he did not, however, launch an appeal to vote for Macron.

Macron’s progress in the polls in recent days is precisely due to the part of Mélenchon’s electorate that previously thought of abstaining or voting white or null – until then the majority in several polls – and now intends to choose the president to prevent the eventual arrival of Le Think to power.

Yet, paradoxically, some Mélenchon voters, between 19% and 25%, are intent on opting for the radical-right candidate on Sunday.

A poll by Opinionway for the newspaper Les Echos, released on Friday (22/4), indicates that now more than half of Mélenchon voters (54%) expect to vote for Macron, this represents an increase of seven percentage points compared to the poll. of the eve. At the same time, the total that voted for Mélenchon and intends to opt for Le Pen fell from 27% to 23%. The remainder (23%) expect to abstain or vote blank or null.

Macron has been multiplying statements aimed at the left-wing electorate, especially Mélenchon’s audience, which attracts mainly young people, concerned about environmental issues, and the lower classes (who in this case also opt for Le Pen). Macron even used terms from Mélenchon’s campaign, such as “ecological planning”.

After a campaign that was practically non-existent in the first round due to a strategic choice, since he led the polls, even refusing to participate in debates, Macron went to the field intensely in this second round, multiplying visits in several locations, including Marseille, a bastion of Mélenchon. , and a poor Parisian periphery, with an immigrant population, where the leader of Insubmissive France won almost half of the votes on April 10.

Macron suffers from a feeling of rejection in a part of the population, especially in the most popular layers. A part of the French is disappointed with his first term and expresses revolt against him, opting for the leader of the radical right.

Dubbed the “president of the rich” by some, he seems, in the eyes of a slice of the electorate, according to polls, disconnected from French concerns, arrogant and less willing to change the situation. That’s why Le Pen tries to turn the vote into a kind of “anti-Macron referendum.”

At the same time, he is seen by most French people, according to polls, as someone with the stature of a head of state, capable of facing crises and representing a good image of France abroad, unlike Le Pen.

Another difficulty for Macron is that the first round on the 10th revealed that the radical right has never been stronger in France. She gathered 32% of the votes, including the three candidates (Le Pen, the extremist Éric Zemmour and the runt Nicolas Dupont-Aignan).

Exactly twenty years after Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, reached the second round of the 2002 presidential elections, which led to gigantic protests in France and the victory of Jacques Chirac with more than 82% of the votes, the so-called republican front ( union of different parts of the political spectrum to stop the radical right and ideas contrary to the values ​​of the Republic) has been retreating in France.

“The citizen reflex of voting in the presidential second round for the candidate who faces the extreme right weakens, both on the right and on the left”, writes the newspaper Le Monde.

Le Pen’s strategy, adopted several years ago, of changing the image of the party founded by his father, the so-called “de-devilization”, worked for part of the electorate. Polls indicate that fewer and fewer French consider it a threat to democracy, even though it is still seen that way by nearly half the population.

She has focused her campaign in recent weeks on issues related to purchasing power, the main concern of the French in this period of high inflation. This led the other candidates, including Macron, to announce projects in this area.

Some left-wing voters, especially those who voted for Mélenchon, from the radical left, say they are “tired” of barring the extreme right without this representing an improvement in the situation in the country.

“There is increasing reluctance to apply the republican front. In a polarized society, it is difficult to ally with someone who has been fought for years. It is necessary to educate voters on the subject of the least worst”, says political scientist Nonna Mayer. .

There were several demonstrations in France on April 16 against Le Pen and the radical right, but without explicit calls to vote for Macron, who was criticized on posters and slogans despite messages of “not a vote for Le Pen”.

Macron hopes to revive the republican front and, more than trying to convince voters to adhere to his program in the final stretch of the campaign, he has been trying to pass the image of representing a wall against the nationalist threat of Le Pen. It aims to re-establish control of people and goods at France’s borders that already move freely within the European Union, among other controversial measures.

“In the first round, you vote for the project that suits you the most. In the second, you choose what seems closest to you. You eliminate, you build a dam,” Macron said in a TV interview.

“We must choose what is best for themselves and for society, even if it is not exactly the (candidate) we want,” the president declared in another interview. Macron also warned those intending to abstain on Sunday, particularly young people, recalling the results of the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom and the election of Donald Trump in the United States.

In the televised debate between Macron and Le Pen on Wednesday, the only one held in the entire campaign, the president was seen as the most combative and the most convincing, according to polls. Macron even said that Le Pen would provoke a civil war in France with his proposal to ban the Islamic veil (which only covers the hair) from the country’s streets and public spaces. The comment was a way of accusing the radical right candidate of dividing French society.

In addition to the transfer of votes from Mélenchon’s electorate, the abstention rate in the second round is another decisive factor. In the first round, it was at 26.3%, one of the highest in recent years. The rate was even higher among young people. On Sunday, it could be higher than the 25.4% of the second round in 2017, according to projections.

“There will probably be an abstention as a sign of political protest,” predicts expert Pascal Perrineau, a professor at Sciences Po University.

“The most likely scenario is a victory for Macron, which should be between 54% and 56%”, says Brice Teinturier, director general of the Ipsos institute.

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