See the impact of the ICMS ceiling on fuels by state – 06/16/2022 – Market

With the approval of the ICMS ceiling on fuel, the average price of gasoline should fall by R$ 0.657 per liter in the country, according to estimates made at the request of Folha by consultant Dietmar Schupp, a specialist in taxation in the sector.

The impact varies according to each state’s current tax rate. It is higher in Rio de Janeiro, which currently has the highest rate on fuel in the country, at 34%. And lower in Amapá, where the rate on gasoline is 25%.

There is little impact on diesel, as most states already charge rates lower than the 17% established by the law passed in Congress. On average, the price of fuel will drop by less than R$0.01 per liter with the new rule.

See, in the chart below, the impact in each state:

The transfers, however, will depend on the renewal of stocks today in the hands of the distributors, which were bought with the current rates, defends the sector. The expectation is that they will arrive in full at the stations between ten and fifteen days after the new rates take effect.

And they may be overshadowed by new fuel price adjustments, which the market expects in the coming days. This Wednesday (15), according to Abicom (Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers), diesel had a lag of R$ 1.08 per liter and gasoline, of R$ 0.67 per liter.

Schupp’s account considers that the new rates will be charged on the reference prices currently used to calculate the tax, which have been frozen since the end of 2021. If prices are updated, there may even be an increase in the sale value of fuels.