The country’s official inflation – measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) – could reach 9.2% in 2022 with the readjustment announced today by Petrobras in the price of fuel, calculates André Braz, from the Brazilian Institute of Economics at the Foundation. Getulio Vargas (FGV – Ibre).
In the case of gasoline, the adjustment was 5.18%, while for diesel it reached 14.26%. The state-owned company maintained the prices of LPG (cooking gas). In a note, Petrobras reiterated its commitment to the practice of competitive prices and in balance with the market.
Before the increase – which occurs after almost one hundred days of freezing of gasoline prices in refineries – Braz was working with an inflation of 9% for this year.
According to him, the rise in prices for 2022 may rise even more with the announcement of the state-owned company, but there is a measure that can mitigate this increase: the reduction of ICMS.
“We will see, in the coming months, how the discussion of the tax reduction will be, in order to measure, in fact, the impact of this movement on 2022 inflation”.
Immediately, the economist recalls that the readjustment of gasoline and diesel takes place on a date that no longer takes the IPCA-15 of June. In this way, he explains, the index that anticipates this month’s inflation will not capture the current fuel readjustment.
“A good part will be for the IPCA in July since, even for this month’s index, we will only have half the increase in gasoline and half the increase in diesel”, he explains. “That’s because a good part of this month’s price collection has already been carried out”, he adds.
In relation to the consumer, Braz says that the impact will not be in the magnitude announced for the distributors.
“The readjustment at the distributor is 5.18%, but at the pump it is something around a third, which can reach 2% in the case of gasoline”, he predicts. Diesel follows the same dynamics: it will rise 14.26 at the distributor and, at the gas stations, something around 5%”, he says.
In a quick statement, XP projects an impact of 18 basis points (bps) from the IPCA readjustment in the coming months. 17 bps in the price of gasoline and 1 bps in the case of diesel.
“We already had a 10% readjustment in gasoline from July onwards, so we anticipated part of the increase”, the text points out. The institution revised the IPCA forecast for June from 0.69 to 0.77% and from 0.87 to 0.79% in July.
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