The week, once again, was full of highs and lows for soybean prices and ended with quotes in the red. Oilseed futures ended the trading session on Friday (17) with losses of 5.75 to 8.75 points, with July worth US$ 17.02 and August, US$ 16.22 a bushel. The market movement was more cautious, with investors on the defensive waiting for new news and facing a US holiday on Monday (20), when the stock exchanges do not work.
In Brazil, despite the dollar favoring the formation of prices, business progressed in a limited way with the Corpus Christi holiday this Thursday (16), which extended to some regions, leaving activities still stopped or happening only in parts .
This Friday, according to information from Safras & Mercado, “the Brazilian soybean market had a day of scarce business and regionalized prices, with losses predominating.
Also according to Safras analysts, the decline in commodity prices on the CBOT “determined the week of weak commercialization”, however, “the rise of the dollar against the real eased the pressure on domestic prices”.
In the survey carried out by Notícias Agrícolas, the port of Paranaguá ends the week with R$ 201.00 per bag available, while it closes with R$ 201.50 for July, both indicators stable this Friday. At the Rio Grande terminal, R$ 201.50 for spot and R$ 201.00 for July, also without variation.
Despite few deals, prices are good and remunerative for Brazilian producers. “We are experiencing a moment when the dollar is valued over political issues, and these news, tomorrow or later, lose strength (…) And then the producer’s attention is needed”, explains Vlamir Brandalizze, market consultant at Brandalizze Consulting.
The market had another busy week and is now more cautious, also due to the holiday in the US next Monday, June 20th, the day when the stock markets do not work. More than that, traders need more news to keep positioning themselves.
While there is still a lot of influence from turbulent financials, traders keep their focus on fundamentals, especially the weather in the United States. The conditions expected for the next few days draw attention, as the maps indicate poorly distributed rains and higher temperatures next week.
And although this scenario may be favorable for some regions, it brings some concern to the market, since the new American crop is long awaited to begin to restore the balance between supply and demand.
For market analyst Aaron Edwards, from Roach Ag Marketing, “next week could be explosive for quotes in Chicago with the continuation of hot and dry weather in the United States”. More than that, he also states that the market is very attentive to the area data that the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) reviews in the report on June 30th.
There is also the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the lockdowns in China and their impact on Chinese consumption.
“The week was beyond turbulent. The highlights were the biggest cycle of monetary tightening in the USA since 1994-95; synchronized BC’s, bringing a strong reduction in liquidity; Expensive fuels and lower global growth; the presence of La Niña and its effects”, explains market analyst Eduardo Vanin, from Agrinvest Commodities.