Lula extends advantage over Bolsonaro in Minas Gerais

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Lula has an advantage over Bolsonaro in Minas (photo: Slvio vália and Patrick T. Fallon/AFP)

Luiz Incio Lula da Silva (PT) leads, with 43.6%, the most recent poll on voting intentions for president in Minas Gerais. He is followed by Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is seeking re-election and is preferred by 31.5% of the electorate. The data are in a report by the F5 Update Data Institute, released exclusively by the State of Mines this Sunday (19/6). In February, month of the previous survey by the F5, Lula had 36.1% in Minas, compared to 27.7% for Bolsonaro. There was, therefore, growth of 7.5 percentage points for the PT. At the same time, the president of the Republic rose 3.8 points.

The third placed Ciro Gomes (PDT), which adds up to 5.5%. Behind Labor is federal deputy Andr Janones (Avante-MG), who owns 3.8% of the women.

Senator Simone Tebet (MDB-MS), considered the “heir” of the third way, did not reach a percentage point – she appears with 0.9%. Luciano Bivar (Unio Brasil), Felipe d’Avila (Novo), Vera Lcia (PSTU) and Pablo Maral (Pros) are tied at 0.1%.

Leonardo Pricles (Unidade Popular), who was a candidate for vice-mayor of BH in 2020, did not get a tenth.

There are also 8.3% of undecided people and 5.6% of possible null or blank votes. Abstention was only 0.4%. The numbers refer to stimulated polls, in which voters need to give their opinion on a predefined list of possible candidates.

Tighter dispute in spontaneous search

In the spontaneous survey, in which participants can freely mention any politician, PT has 30.8%, against 24% for the PL’s pre-candidate. In the February poll, the result had been 22.4% for Lula and 18.8% for Bolsonaro.

art of the company F5 with electoral research for the presidency
F5 electoral survey on the election campaign for the Presidency of the Republic (photo: EM Art)

In the current survey, they are closely followed by Ciro, who got 1.2%, and by Janones, who owns 1%. Simone Tebet and Sergio Moro (Unio Brasil) did not reach a point. Although he was cited, the former judge is out of the presidential election and should try for a term in Paraná.

In spontaneous research, there are 27.9% undecided and 10.6% blank and null. Another 3.4% did not respond.

F5 Update Data conducted 1,560 telephone interviews in Minas between the 13th and 16th of this month. The margin of error of the results of 2.5% – plus or minus.

‘Tile vote’ strengthens Lula and Bolsonaro

From the beginning of the year until now, the search for a name capable of breaking the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro has suffered ups and downs. Joo Doria (PSDB), who last week announced his departure from political life, was the toucan pre-candidate for the Planalto and was trying to secure himself as the third way. However, without ranking in the polls, the former governor of So Paulo resigned from the race.

Another toucan, Eduardo Leite, a former governor from Rio Grande do Sul, also had his name defended by allies, but he was not able to actually enter the game. PSDB, Cidadania, MDB and Unio Brasil even announced an alliance to try to find a consensus name. The Union, however, left the coalition and launched Bivar’s pre-candidacy.

At the same time, in order to replace Doria, the emedebistas announced Tebet – who got the support of Cidadania and the toucans.

For Domilson Coelho, executive director of F5 Updates Data and a graduate degree in Political Science, the absence of a clear third way explains the transfer of votes to Lula and Bolsonaro and, consequently, the growth of the two pre-candidates.

“The voter who was undecided and expected a conciliatory name for not wanting Lula or Bolsonaro, did not find it. Those who don’t want Lula president are already declaring their vote for Bolsonaro; those who don’t want Bolsonaro president again, declare their vote for Lula”, he says.

Domilson believes that Tebet will not be able to bring together the electorate that seeks an alternative to petismo and bolsonarismo. “It didn’t come with enough time to build it. It’s very unknown and doesn’t represent a third way,” she says. “Ciro is also unable to head this project”, he adds.

The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under the numbers MG-00062/2022 and BR-02909/2022. The confidence level of the collected data is 95%.

Government and Senate in Minas

O IN released this Saturday an F5 survey on the dispute over the Minas Gerais government. The distance between Romeu Zema (Novo) and Alexandre Kalil (PSD) dropped from 29 to 17 percentage points. In relation to the Senate, although there is a predominance of undecided voters, deputy Acio Neves (PSDB) leads the polls stimulated and spontaneous.

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