Treasury Direct: rates operate mixed with perception of peak inflation and fiscal risk

Public bond rates operate mixed this Monday afternoon (20). In fixed rates, rates fall by up to 18 basis points. As for IPCA-linked securities, the movement is mixed – some assets show gains in profitability of up to 5 basis points, while others decline.

According to Cristiane Quartalori, economist at Banco Ourinvest, the interest curve today remained stable throughout the day, with a small downward bias. She highlights that the background of this movement is the perception that the peak of inflation in Brazil has already arrived and that the Central Bank may be close to the end of the monetary tightening cycle.

Cristiane also mentions the lower liquidity of the markets, due to the holiday in the United States, which ended up affecting the behavior of interest rates.

“There is also a concern that the increase in interest rates on a global scale, mainly in the United States, will cause a recession in the main economies of the world”, he says.

Fiscal risk was also a concern in today’s session, with the government signaling measures considered “populist” by the market. One of them would be the possibility of readjustments in Auxílio Brasil.

Nicolas Borsoi, chief economist at Nova Futura, cites that over the weekend, a column by Lauro Jardim, from O Globo, reported that the government is considering increasing Auxílio Brasil to R$600 per month, an amount that is beyond the ceiling. of spending. “In addition, the victory of a candidate with a more interventionist economic platform in Colombia increases the perception of risk in Latin America”, he adds.

Among the factors that also pressure the interest rate curve this Monday (20), Borsoi highlights the political tensions between President Jair Bolsonaro and the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira, who has raised the tone of criticism against the policy of Petrobras prices. On Monday morning (20), Petrobras announced that José Mauro Coelho resigned as president of the state-owned company.

On the market’s radar and that should impact future sessions, Cristiane cites the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) – which raised the Selic to 13.25% per year. The minutes will be published on Tuesday (21), and may bring new information about the next decisions of the Central Bank and the Selic terminal point. Although according to economists consulted by the InfoMoneythe minutes are already priced in the markets, but “it may still surprise”.

Attention should also be paid to the IPCA-15 – preview of the official inflation for June – which will be released on Friday (24) and may influence the behavior of interest rates.

Within public bonds, the biggest drop was in fixed-rate long-term paper. The Fixed-rate Treasury 2033, with semi-annual interest, offered an annual return of 12.78%, below the 12.96% registered on Friday (17).

The Fixed Rate Treasury 2025 and the Fixed Rate Treasury 2029 offered at 3:28 pm annual returns of 12.53% and 12.63% respectively, lower than the 12.64% and 12.77% seen in the previous session.

In inflation-linked bonds, the Treasury IPCA+ 2026 and the Treasury IPCA+ 2032 had high rates.

The bonds offered a real return of 5.35% and 5.55%, respectively, higher than the 5.30% and 5.53% delivered on Friday (17).

In the other securities, the movement was one of decline or stability in rates.

Check the prices and rates of all public securities available for purchase at the Treasury Direct this Monday afternoon (20):

Source: Direct Treasure

Resignation of the president of Petrobras

Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) announced this Monday morning (20) that José Mauro Coelho resigned as president of the state-owned company.

The appointment of an interim president will be examined by Petrobras’ Board of Directors from now on. The company informed that facts considered relevant will be promptly communicated to the market.

Pressure on the company increased after Petrobras announced a new adjustment in fuel prices on Friday, which led the government, Congress and Minister André Mendonça, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), to criticize the company.

At the end of last week, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), president of the Chamber of Deputies, again demanded the immediate resignation of Coelho, who had already had his departure announced three weeks ago, but held the post until the council decided to replace him. by executive Caio Mario Paes de Andrade.

The rise in fuel prices is seen as one of the main obstacles to the project for the reelection of the Chief Executive.

Lira also announced that he will meet this Monday the college of leaders to discuss Petrobras’ pricing policy and try to transfer the company’s profit to the population.

On Sunday, the parliamentarian demanded respect from the state-owned company to the Brazilian people. On social media, Lira said that if “Petrobras decides to face Brazil, let it prepare itself: Brazil will face Petrobras”.

IPC-S

The Consumer Price Index – Weekly (IPC-S) accelerated to 0.91% in the second quadrissemana of June, after 0.79% in the first reading. The information was released this Monday (20), by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). The indicator accumulates a high of 10.58% in 12 months, higher than the advance of 10.44% in the period up to the first measurement.

Of the eight categories of expenses that make up the indicator, four advanced from the first to the second four weeks of the month, especially Housing, which went from a drop of 0.15% to a high of 0.79%. The item with the greatest influence in the group was the residential electricity tariff (-4.99% to -0.15%).

Clothing (1.62% to 1.94%), Communication (-0.31% to -0.23%) and Education, Reading and Recreation (3.43% to 3.44%) were the other groups to present increase in the rate of change. In these classes, the items with the highest weight were men’s clothing (2.12% to 2.93%), streaming services (0.46% to 1.09%) and airline tickets (15.40% to 15.90% ).

On the other hand, Transport (0.62% to 0.30%), Health and Personal Care (0.89% to 0.72%), Miscellaneous Expenses (0.77% to 0.61%) and Food (0 .73% to 0.70%) cooled down from the first four weeks. These groups were driven by ethanol (0.07% to -4.87%), toiletries and personal care (1.85% to 0.95%), banking services (1.04% to 0.75%) and vegetables and legumes (-7.09% to -8.04%).

IGP-M

Inflation measured by the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M) accelerated to 0.55% in the second preview of June, from 0.39% in the same reading in May, informed the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) today. Two of the three components of the IGP-M registered an increase in the period.

The Consumer Price Index (IPC-M) accelerated to 0.66% in this ten-day period, from 0.28% in the May preview, according to FGV. The National Construction Cost Index (INCC-M) also increased in the period, from 0.70% to 3.33%. On the other hand, the Broad Producer Price Index (IPA-M) decelerated from 0.38% in the second preview of May to 0.21% now.

Brazil aid

Municipalities across Brazil account for a pent-up demand of 2.78 million families to have access to Auxílio Brasil, the social program of the Jair Bolsonaro government (PL) that replaced Bolsa Família. There are 5.3 million people who have the profile to receive the benefit and were in line in April, according to the most recent mapping by the National Confederation of Municipalities (CNM).

The speed of growth of repressed demand has surprised and worried the mayors, who at the end feel the demands of the population due to the increase in poverty (since it is in the municipalities that families register to enter the program).

The queue more than doubled between March and April, with an increase of more than 1.480 million families waiting for the benefit: it went from 1.307 million families (2.1 million people) to 2.788 million families (5.3 million of people) in just one month, and the number is already close to the number of families queuing at the time that Bolsa Família was abolished (3.1 million families).

About Yadunandan Singh

Born in 1992, Yadunandan approaches the world of video games thanks to two sacred monsters like Diablo and above all Sonic, strictly in the Sega Saturn version. Ranging between consoles and PCs, he is particularly fond of platform titles and RPGs, not disdaining all other genres and moving in the constant search for the perfect balance between narration and interactivity.

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