How much will gasoline, ethanol, diesel and gas cost after the package of measures

Gasoline, ethanol and cooking gas prices could fall by more than 10% on the national average – compared to levels prior to the Petrobras readjustment – ​​if the package of measures articulated by the government and Congress is fully implemented and the states follow it to the letter. preliminary decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) on ICMS. The price of diesel, on the other hand, may fall by only 1%.

The estimates are from the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and were released this Tuesday (21) by Minister Adolfo Sachsida at a public hearing in the Chamber of Deputies. There he stated, among other things, that the legislation prevents the government from interfering with prices, and that they are Petrobras’ own decision.

The MME calculations consider the following measures:

  • PLP 18/2022 – The complementary bill, which has already been approved by Congress and is awaiting sanction by President Jair Bolsonaro, sets a ceiling of 17% for ICMS on fuel, electricity, telecommunications and public transport. The proposal also eliminates PIS, Cide and Cofins levied on gasoline and ethanol;
  • PEC 15/2022 (of Biofuels) – Approved in the Senate and now under analysis by the House, the proposed amendment to the Constitution guarantees the maintenance of the difference in tax rates (existing on May 15, 2022) between fossil fuels (eg gasoline) and their substitute biofuels (eg ethanol) , in order to maintain the competitiveness of the latter;
  • PEC 16/2022 (Fuel) – The proposed amendment to the Constitution, which is awaiting analysis by the Senate, provides that the Union will reimburse R$ 29.6 billion to states that define a zero ICMS rate for diesel and cooking gas and 12% for hydrous ethanol, from July 1st to December 31st, 2022;
  • ADI 7164 – Injunction by STF Minister André Mendonça in this Direct Action of Unconstitutionality determines that states must charge uniform ICMS rates for each fuel and that, while the unified rates are not defined, the tax calculation base will be the average price of the 60 months previous.

The following table details the government’s estimates of national average fuel prices after the aforementioned measures take effect. Vehicle fuel prices are in reais per litre. For cooking gas (LPG), the value is for a 13-kilogram cylinder.

FuelAverage price up to 6/11 in BRLPrice after adjustment by Petrobras in BRL (**)
Price after measurement package in BRL (***)Gasoline7.257.39

*National average according to ANP survey
**MME estimate
***Considers the effects of PLP 18, ADI 7164 and PECs 15 and 16.

Source: Ministry of Mines and Energy

The MME numbers confirm the expectation that the 14.26% increase in diesel in refineries, announced by Petrobras on Friday (17), tends to “nullify” almost all the expected drop with the measures of the government and Congress. plus the injunction of André Mendonça, of the STF.

Pressure from Bolsonaro, ministers and parliamentarians after the readjustment, which includes a threat from a CPI to investigate the state-owned company’s board, led executive José Mauro Coelho to resign from the presidency of Petrobras on Monday (20), just 67 days after taking office. possession.

The impact of the package on gasoline, ethanol, diesel and cooking gas prices

From an average national price of R$7.01 until the week ended June 11, the Ministry of Mines and Energy estimates that a liter of diesel will rise to R$7.64 as a result of the Petrobras readjustment, and then it may decline to R$ 6.94 after the implementation of all measures, including the STF injunction. With this, the new value would be R$ 0.07 – or 1% – below the average price prior to the increase announced by the state-owned company.

The average price of gasoline to consumers, meanwhile, goes from R$7.25 to R$7.39 per liter after the Petrobras readjustment (from 5.18% at refineries), and may fall to R$6.22 with the entry into force of the proposed laws and also with the decision of Mendonça, of the STF. The difference between “pre-adjustment” and “post-measurement” prices is 14%.

Also according to the MME, consumer prices for ethanol may drop 11% (from R$5.00 to R$4.46 per liter) and those of LPG, 12% (from R$112.64 to R$98, 87). In all the cases mentioned, the values ​​correspond to national averages.

According to the ministry’s accounts, the price of gasoline would drop even further – to R$5.77 per liter – if it weren’t for PEC 15, which requires the maintenance of the current tax difference in relation to ethanol, in order to prevent a loss of competitiveness. of the sugarcane derivative. In this simulation without PEC 15, ethanol would cost R$ 4.58, according to the MME.

About Yadunandan Singh

Born in 1992, Yadunandan approaches the world of video games thanks to two sacred monsters like Diablo and above all Sonic, strictly in the Sega Saturn version. Ranging between consoles and PCs, he is particularly fond of platform titles and RPGs, not disdaining all other genres and moving in the constant search for the perfect balance between narration and interactivity.

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