Polls indicate Lula’s victory in the 1st round

Survey by Poder360 shows that 5 election polls indicate that the former president may win as early as October 2

This year’s elections can be decided in the 1st round, indicates a survey of the Power 360. Of the last 6 electoral polls, 5 show the possibility of ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) winning on October 2nd.

In 2 studies – Quaest and Datafolha – Lula wins outside the margin of error in the 1st round. Other 3 – XP/Ipespe, FSB and PowerDate – indicate a technical tie between Lula’s voting intentions and the sum of the percentages of the other pre-candidates, within the margin of error. In Paraná Pesquisas, the distance is greater and there would be a 2nd shift.

O Power 360 considered the latest surveys released by PowerDate, Quaest, FSB, Ipespe, Paraná Pesquisas and DataFolha. In Brazil, to be elected in the 1st round, the candidate must receive at least 50% plus 1 of the valid votes. In short, the winner must have more votes than all the opponents combined (blank and null votes are not considered in this calculation).

Here are the full surveys:

PowerDate

Search PowerDate held from June 19 to 21, 2022 shows that former President Lula leads the electoral race with 44% of voting intentions. The distance between him and President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is 10 percentage points in the 1st round.

In the 2nd round, the PT increased the advantage in relation to the current chief of the Executive, in relation to the last survey. Lula has 52% against 35% for Bolsonaro.

The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power 360 Journalism, with its own resources. Data were collected from June 19 to 21 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,000 interviews in 302 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-07003/2022.

To reach 3,000 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerDate makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees who faithfully represent the entire population are found. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.

RESEARCH AGGREGATOR

O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.

The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access by clicking here.

Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.

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