Datafolha: Lula has 47% in the first round, against 28% for Bolsonaro | Election poll

A survey by the Datafolha institute released this Thursday (23) by the newspaper “Folha de S.Paulo” reveals the intention to vote for the 2022 presidential election.

  • LIVE: the numbers of the Datafolha survey

The pre-candidates were: Lula (PT), Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Ciro Gomes (PDT), André Janones (Avante), Simone Tebet (MDB), Luciano Bivar (União Brasil), Felipe D’Ávila (Novo) , Eymael (DC), Pablo Marçal (Pros), General Santos Cruz (Podemos), Leonardo Péricles (UP), Sofia Manzano (PCB) and Vera Lúcia (PSTU).

In relation to the previous survey, Lula oscillated one point down, within the margin of error. Bolsonaro oscillated one point higher, also within the margin of error.

Stimulated poll of voting intentions in the 1st round

  • Lula (EN): 47% (48% in the previous survey in May)
  • Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 28% (27% in previous survey)
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT): 8% (7% in previous survey)
  • André Janones (Avant): 2% (2% in previous survey)
  • Simone Tebet (MDB): 1% (2% in previous survey)
  • Pablo Marcal (Pros): 1% (1% in previous survey)
  • Vera Lucia (PSTU): 1% (1% in previous survey)
  • Blank/null/none: 7% (7% in previous survey)
  • Do not know: 4% (4% in previous survey)

Felipe d’Avila (Novo), Sofia Manzano (PCB), Leonardo Péricles (UP), Eymael (DC), Luciano Bivar (UB) and General Santos Cruz (Podemos) did not score.

The survey heard 2,556 people on June 22 and 23 in 181 Brazilian cities. The margin of error is plus or minus two points.

Lula would win in the first round, according to the Datafolha figures released this Thursday. Relative to the previous poll, he and Bolsonaro fluctuated within the margin of error.

  • Lula (EN): 53% (54% in the previous survey in May)
  • Bolsonaro (PL): 32% (30% in the previous survey in May)

Bolsonaro grows spontaneously

The spontaneous poll shows Bolsonaro’s growth: he went from 22% to 25%. Lula remains the leader, having fluctuated from 38% to 37%. The margin of error is two percentage points up or down.

  • Squid: 37% (38% in May)
  • Bolsonaro: 25% (22% in May)
  • Cyrus: 3% (2% in May)
  • Do not know: 27% (29% in May)
  • Blank/null/none: 6% (5% in May)

In the Northeast region, Lula has 59% against 19% for Bolsonaro. The PT also does well among the younger ones, winning from 54% to 24%. The former president has his best performances even among the least educated and among those who earn up to 2 minimum wages. In both constituencies, Lula wins from 56% to 22%.

Bolsonaro has widened his advantage among evangelicals. The voting intention in this group was 39% and fluctuated to 40%. Lula, on the other hand, fluctuated downwards, from 36% to 35%.

Bolsonaro is also doing better among the richest, who earn more than 10 minimum wages. In this range, it has 47% of voting intentions. Among entrepreneurs, it reaches 43%.

Jair Bolsonaro and Lula — Photo: Evaristo Sá and Nelson Almeida/AFP

About Abhishek Pratap

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