Lula leads the poll with 45%; Bolsonaro has 36%

posted on 06/23/2022 11:16

(credit: Sílvio Ávlia and Patrick T. Fallon/AFP)

Published this Thursday (23/6), the Instituto Idea electoral poll carried out at the request of the magazine Exam shows former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 45% of the voting intentions for the presidency of the Republic. In search of reelection, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appears with 36%. Following are Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 7%, and Simone Tebet (MDB), with 3%.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%. Since May, when the institute’s previous poll was conducted, the two candidates have each grown by four percentage points.

The spontaneous poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro, respectively, with 35% and 30% of voting intentions, when voters are asked who they would vote for, without presenting names. Ciro was remembered by 4% of the electorate; Tebet and federal deputy André Janones, from Avante, for 1% each.

The other candidates scored less than 1%. Already 28% said they would vote blank, null or are undecided.

Stimulated poll for president: 1st round

Lula (PT) – 45%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – 36%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 7%
Simone Tebet (MDB) – 3%
André Janones (Forward) – 1%
Felipe d’Avila (New) – 0.5%
Pablo Marçal (Pros) – 0.5%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU) – 0.3%
Sofia Manzano (PCB) – 0.1%
Leonardo Pericles (UP) – 0.1%
Luciano Bivar (Union Brazil) – 0.1%
None/blank/null – 3%
Don’t know – 4%

Spontaneous poll for president: 1st round

Lula (PT) – 35%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – 30%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 4%
Simone Tebet (MDB) – 1%
André Janones (Forward) – 1%
Sergio Moro (Union) – 0.4%
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) – 0.3%
João Doria (PSDB) – 0.2%
Luiz Felipe d’Avila (New) – 0.1%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU) – 0.1%
Others – 0.3%
None/blank/null – 9%
Don’t know – 19%

Second round: Lula vs Bolsonaro

Lula (PT) – 48%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – 41%
White/null – 7%
Don’t know – 3%
Second round: Lula vs Tebet
Lula (PT) – 47%
Simone Tebet (MDB) – 20%
White/null – 28%
Don’t know – 5%

Second round: Lula vs Ciro

Lula (PT) – 45%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 33%
White/null – 19%
Don’t know – 3%
Second round: Bolsonaro vs Tebet
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – 44%
Simone Tebet (MDB) – 23%
White/null – 29%
Don’t know – 4%

Second round: Bolsonaro vs Ciro

Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – 43%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 37%
White/null – 14%
Don’t know – 6%

Rejection

Candidates with the highest rejection rate are Lula and Bolsonaro:

Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – 44%
Lula (PT) – 42%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 18%
Simone Tebet (MDB) – 12%
Sofia Manzano (PCB) – 10%
Leonardo Pericles (UP) – 10%
Vera Lucia (PSTU) – 10%
Luiz Felipe d’Avila (New) – 9%
José Maria Eymael (DC) – 8%
André Janones (Forward) – 7%
Pablo Marcal (Pros) – 6%
Luciano Bivar (Union Brazil) – 6%
Reject none – 4%
Don’t know – 6%

Research methodology

To carry out the survey, Instituto Ideia interviewed 1,500 voters by telephone (landlines and cell phones) between the 17th and 22nd of June. The survey was registered at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) with protocol BR-02845-2022.