O Bradesco BBI and the Agora Investments elected the BRF (BRFS3), a ambev (ABEV3) and the M. Dias Branco (MDI3) as the favorite stocks of the food & drinks to enjoy the commodity fall.
According to analysts, these stocks are generally the ones that benefit the most from the fall in commodity prices, as the scenario suggests a reduction in input costs.
Processed food producer BRF receives a buy recommendation from brokerages, with a target price of BRL 27.00 – which implies a potential increase of 85%. The brewer Ambev and the manufacturer of pasta and cookies M. Dias Branco, both with indication of purchase, have objectives of, respectively, R$ 21.00 and R$ 40.00 – potential appreciation of 54% and 55% .
Analysts point out that the three stocks outperformed the Ibovespa (IBOV) by approximately 10 percentage points since mid-June, when the prices of major commodities began to fall.
In addition, the brokers point out that the performance of the shares surpassed by 20 pp the performance of agricultural producerssuch as SLC Agrícola — which has an indication of sale -, and São Martinho — with a neutral recommendation -, and in 8 pp the beef producers listed on the stock exchange.
“Despite the climatic and geopolitical risks, we remain pessimistic in relation to the prices of agricultural commodities and optimistic with BRF, Ambev and M. Dias Branco, since the factors that are weighing on prices should continue”, they say.
Analysts say that rising interest rates in United Stateswith at least 7 increases expected for 2022, and “disappointing demand” from China, with margins in the struggling hog industry suggesting that grain prices need to drop by as much as 25% for margins to return to breakeven, are two of the factors putting pressure on commodities.
In addition, the brokerage team predicts lower prices than Petroleum at US$95/barrel for 2022 and US$90 in 2023 against spot prices around US$113, which is historically bearish for agricultural commodity prices.
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