The government is counting on the inflow of around BRL 54 billion in extra revenues to offset the impact of the package to boost social benefits, with BRL 17 billion in additional dividend payment reinforcement by the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES). ). This revenue will serve to offset the impact of the Fuels PEC, where the measures will be included, and maintain the same fiscal deficit trajectory forecast for this year before the government’s decision to increase spending in an election year.
After the political wing financed a new package to lessen the impact of the fuel rise, the economic team’s effort is to contain the pressure for even greater spending and ensure that the extra cost is financed with additional revenues that were not in the account before the announcement of the package, so as not to worsen the public debt. O Estadão found that the political wing is trying to increase the amount foreseen to reinforce Auxílio Brasil and the gas voucher.
The estimated hole in the federal accounts is around R$65 billion at the end of 2022, the same trajectory expected now with the extra revenues. In addition to the payment of dividends from BNDES for 2020 and 2021, the extra revenue basket includes a reinforcement of Petrobras dividends referring to the second half profit and other state-owned companies and another R$ 26.6 billion already deposited by Eletrobras in the operation of privatization. This money was not in the Budget account because of the uncertainties surrounding the operation.
Oil company dividends
Petrobras’ profit in the first quarter has already guaranteed about R$ 11 billion in dividends to the National Treasury, and the government believes that it is “reasonable” to expect a robust result also in the second half. In the first quarter, the estimated revenue for the whole year in the Petrobras dividend budget has already been exceeded.
The determination of the Ministry of Economy is for all state-owned companies to transfer quarterly dividends to the Union.
So far, the estimated cost of the package is around R$ 54 billion, between increased expenses and loss of revenue with tax exemptions. Of this total, around BRL 37 billion are expenses that will be outside the spending ceiling to fund the increase in Auxílio Brasil (from BRL 400 to BRL 600); the R$ 1,000 truck driver grant; reinforcement of the gas voucher (doubling the current benefit, around R$53 every two months); free public transport for the elderly; and compensation to States that reduce the ICMS rate on ethanol to 12%.
wanted by Estadão, the Ministry of Economy informed that, if there is an impact, it will occur next year, as the compensation trigger will compare the total collection in the year 2022. Only at the beginning of next year will an assessment be made whether or not there was a drop in collection , informed the ministry’s press office. In other words, any compensation will only enter the funds of governors elected in this year’s elections.