New York and European stock futures indices operate downwards, in the same direction as the closing of Asian markets, with the exception of the Shanghai index, before the release of the PCE (consumer spending price index) for May in the US, the inflation used by the Fomc for monetary policy decisions.
Thursday’s casualties stem from the lack of prospects that the war in Ukraine will end anytime soon and the view that inflationary pressures are likely to continue to grow. With central banks aggressively seeking to combat rising prices with interest rate hikes, there are growing fears of a global recession.
On Wednesday, Cleveland Fed Chair Loretta Mester told CNBC that she will support a 75 basis point hike at the next central bank meeting in July if current economic conditions persist. In early June, the US central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, the biggest increase since 1994.
Some market participants are concerned that too aggressive action will plunge the economy into a recession.
In indicators, weekly US jobless claims will also be in focus this Thursday.
Here, the Central Bank publishes the quarterly inflation report (RTI), the IBGE publishes the unemployment rate of Pnad Contínua, while the Senate votes on the PEC on Fuels. The day before, the Ibovespa closed down and risks having the worst monthly performance since the first moments of the pandemic in the country, amid fears of recession in the United States and concerns about the fiscal scenario in Brazil.
This Thursday, the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) auction is also promoted for the construction, operation and maintenance of 5,400 kilometers of transmission lines and 6,200 mega-volt-amps (MVA) in capacity to transform substations.
The forecast is for investments of around R$ 15.3 billion and the generation of more than 30 thousand direct jobs, according to the regulatory agency. The facilities should start operating within 42 to 60 months from the signing of the concession contracts, which are valid for 30 years.
Check out more highlights:
1. World Scholarships
US futures indexes operate lower on Thursday (30), as the S&P 500 prepares to end its worst first half since 1970, as several factors pressure the markets.
The Dow and S&P 500 are on track for their worst three-month period since the first quarter of 2020, when Covid lockdowns sent stocks crashing. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has dropped more than 20% in the past three months, its worst stretch since 2008.
The Fed has taken aggressive steps to try to curb runaway inflation, which has hit a 40-year high, causing some Wall Street observers to worry about a possible recession.
See the performance of futures markets:
- Dow Jones Future (USA), -0.84%
- S&P 500 Futures (US), -1.09%
- Nasdaq Future (USA), -1.39%
Most Asian markets closed with losses. However, China’s Shanghai index rose, buoyed by government data showing manufacturing activity rose in June.
China’s manufacturing PMI for June came in at 50.2, slightly below the expected 50.5, according to a Reuters poll.
South Korea’s industrial production rose slightly in May, government data showed. Industrial production increased by 0.1% from the April figure. Service sector output grew by 1.1% in May.
Japan’s industrial production fell 7.2% in May, according to government data. The number was much lower than the market consensus and may have been affected by lockdowns in China, Rob Carnell, ING’s regional head of Asia-Pacific research, wrote in a note on Thursday.
- Shanghai SE (China), +1.10%
- Nikkei (Japan), -1.54%
- Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), -0.62%
- Kospi (South Korea), -1.91%
The main European markets operate lower this Thursday (30), as concerns about the recession persist.
The worst performer was the German energy company Uniper. Its shares fell 14.3% after it withdrew its 2022 financial outlook on Gazprom’s gas supply restrictions. The company said it had received only 40% of the contractually agreed gas volumes from Gazprom since June 16, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.
Data released in Europe on Thursday included preliminary French inflation data for June, which showed the country’s consumer price index rose 5.8% from a year earlier, up from 5.2% in May.
- FTSE 100 (UK), -1.60%
- DAX (Germany), -2.02%
- CAC 40 (France), -2.09%
- FTSE MIB (Italy), -1.84%
Oil prices operate close to stability as investors weigh the prospects with tightening global supplies and rising US gasoline and distillate inventories.
- WTI Oil, -0.08% at $109.69 a barrel
- Brent crude, -0.22% at $116.01 a barrel
- Iron ore traded on the Dalian Exchange was down 2.22% to 791.00 yuan, equivalent to US$118.22
- Bitcoin, -6.49% at $19,227.67 (from 24 hours ago)
This Thursday, the Central Bank’s quarterly inflation report (RTI) is expected.
The continuous Pnad for May will also be released. “In addition to the unemployment rate, it will be important to see the evolution of wages, which have recently recovered, helping to increase disposable income for consumption in the first quarter of 2022,” wrote the Itaú analysis team, which expects the rate to go up to 10.1%.
In the US, the PCE in May stands out, inflation used by the Fomc to guide its monetary policy.
7:18 am: ModalMais electoral poll
8:00 am: Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI)
9:00 am: Continuous PNAD survey for May, with Refinitiv unemployment rate projection at 10.2%
11:30 am: Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, has a meeting with the Director of Operations and Institutional Relations of the Fund in Brazil MUBADALA
9:30 am: Claims for weekly unemployment insurance, consensus points to 228,000 claims
9:30 am: Price Index (PCE)
10:45 am: PMI
3. Aid PEC
The plenary session of the Federal Senate postponed, this Wednesday (29), the vote on the basic text of the PEC dos Auxílios, which creates social benefits and expands existing programs in response to the crisis caused by the soaring inflation and worsening of social indicators in the country.
The decision responded to the request of several parliamentarians for more time to analyze the matter after discussions during the session. With that, the vote moved to today (30), at 16:00 (Brasília time).
Senator Fernando Bezerra Coelho (MDB-PE), rapporteur for the PEC, said that he will remove from the text an excerpt that raised doubts about the scope of the national state of emergency that is decreed in the matter to make it possible to grant social benefits on the eve of the election. .
“The non-application of any fence or restriction provided for in a norm of any nature”, read the passage, criticized by the opposition, which must now be suppressed by Bezerra. The electoral law prevents, in a normal situation, the expansion or adoption of benefits in an election year, but there is an exception in case of calamity and emergency.
STF and MEC
The Minister of the STF, Cármen Lúcia, sent to the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) another crime news presented for Bolsonaro to be investigated for the scandal of the Ministry of Education (MEC) and for alleged obstruction of justice. The request sent this Wednesday (29) was presented by a group of opposition senators.
Last Wednesday (29), Brazil recorded 294 deaths and 76,263 cases of covid-19 in 24 hours, according to information from the consortium of press vehicles, at 8 pm.
The moving average of Covid deaths in 7 days in Brazil stood at 226, an increase of 52% compared to the level of 14 days earlier.
The moving average of new cases in seven days was 55,549, which represents an increase of 39% compared to the level of 14 days before.
The number of people fully immunized against Covid in Brazil reached 167,500,600, equivalent to 77.97% of the population.
The number of people who took at least the first dose of vaccines reached 179,064,166 people, which represents 83.35% of the population.
The booster dose was given to 94,809,712 people, or 44.13% of the population.
5. Corporate Radar
Cemig (CMIG4) approved the acquisition of 100% interest in special purpose companies (SPEs) that own three photovoltaic plants, with 16.2 MWp of installed power. The total amount to be disbursed by the wholly-owned subsidiary Cemig SIM will be approximately R$100 million.
The photovoltaic plants, located in Minas Gerais, are owned by Genesys Participation Societary and by Antônio Carlos Torres.
Localiza (RENT3) and Unidas (LCAM3)
Localiza (RENT3) and Unidas (LCAM3) reported the final share exchange ratio and the value of the business combination. According to a statement, Unidas shareholders will receive 0.43884446 ON shares of Localiza for each common share issued by the company.
Suzano (SUZB3) entered into a contract for the acquisition of shares in Caravelas Florestal for R$336 million.
The Operation is in line with Suzano’s strategy of being “best-in-class” in terms of total pulp costs, by reducing expenditure on the purchase of wood, as well as guaranteeing a forest base in areas that are strategic to its operations in the long term.
(With Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)
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