The dollar rose on Thursday (30), amid global fears of recession and domestic fiscal uncertainty, and ended June with an accumulated high of more than 10%.
The US currency rose 0.78%, sold at R$5.2327. See more quotes. At maximum, it was quoted at R$ 5.2705. At the minimum, it marked R$ 5.1875.
The session was marked by volatility due to the formation of the month-end and quarterly Ptax. Ptax is an exchange rate calculated by the Central Bank that serves as a reference for some financial operations.
The day before, the US currency fell 1.38%, sold at R$5.1922. With this Thursday’s result, the dollar accumulated a high of 10.13% in June. In the year, it still has a devaluation of 6.14% against the real.
The Ibovespa, on the other hand, fell by 1.08%, to 98,542 points.
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On the local scene, investors’ focus continued on the PEC on Fuels in Congress, which recently reignited fiscal fears by increasing public spending on the eve of the elections.
Senator Fernando Bezerra Coelho (MDB-PE), rapporteur of the proposal, announced on Wednesday (29) that he had abandoned the original text and informed that he will resort to another project to propose a social package with measures estimated at R$ 38.7 billion. .
The text of the Fuels PEC provided for compensation to states that exempted fuels. Bezerra’s new proposal provides for expanding Auxílio Brasil and granting a “voucher” to truck drivers.
‘If the spending ceiling is broken, the market will ask for more interest rates’, says economist on PEC
The Central Bank admitted that the inflation target will be missed for the second year in a row in 2022. According to the institution, the probability of inflation exceeding the target ceiling this year rose from 88% in March to 100% in June. For 2023, the Central Bank estimated that the probability of exceeding the ceiling of the target system increased from 12% to 29%. In 2022, the central inflation target is 3.50% and will be officially met if the index fluctuates between 2% and 5%.
The unemployment rate in Brazil fell to 9.8% in the quarter ended in May, with the lack of work reaching 10.6 million Brazilians.
Abroad, the focus remained on fears of a global recession, with investors looking for clues on the path of monetary policy in the US after several Federal Reserve officials (Fed) advocated faster rate hikes to curb high inflation.
“Risk aversion is global, not just for the real. There is this widespread fear of a global recession, and when that happens, investors are more likely to go for safe assets,” such as the dollar, Michelle told Reuters. Hwang, currency and rates strategist at BNP Paribas.
But data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending rose less-than-expected in May amid a shortage of motor vehicles, while higher prices forced cuts in purchases of other goods, another sign that the economic recovery economic growth at the beginning of the second quarter is losing steam. Inflation continued its upward trend in May, with the PCE index rising 0.6% last month and 6.3% in the 12 months through May.
Slower consumption is likely to be welcomed by the Fed, which is looking to tame inflation through aggressive monetary policy tightening. The U.S. central bank this month raised its interest rate by 0.75 percentage point, the highest since 1994.