Future Ibovespa yields to pressure from abroad and operates lower; dollar approaches R$ 5.30

The futures Ibovespa opened trading this Friday (1) between losses and gains, but soon gave in to pressure from abroad and established itself in negative territory. In addition to fears of a global recession, which impact foreign exchanges and some commoditiesinvestors should pass on, here in Brazil, the approval of the PEC on Fuels in the Senate, with a state of emergency, in the amount of R$ 41.25 billion.

At 9:23 am (Brasília time), the Ibovespa futures for August was down 0.3%, at 99,020 points.

The commercial dollar rose 0.87%, to R$5.279 on purchases and R$5.280 on sales. The dollar futures for August was up 0.53%, at R$5.324.

Future interest rates are down: DIF23, -0.04 pp, at 13.72%; DIF25, – 0.08 pp to 12.67%; DIF27, – 0.05 pp, at 12.60%; and DIF29, – 0.05 pp, at 12.74%.

The Dow Jones futures were down 0.36%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were down 0.39% and 0.55%, respectively.

U.S. index futures follow Wall Street’s losses in the first half, the worst for the S&P 500 since 1970.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite were not spared. The 30-stock Dow lost 11.3% in the second quarter, dropping more than 15% in 2022. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, suffered its biggest quarterly decline since 2008, losing 22.4%.

The hefty losses in the first half and quarter come as investors struggle with sky-high inflation and tighter monetary policy.

European markets even opened higher, but gained zero and began to operate in negative territory. In the UK, the manufacturing PMI hit 52.8 in June, lower than expected. The euro zone was slightly higher than expected at 52.1. In Germany, the indicator came in at 52, within expectations.

Eurozone inflation soared to a record 8.6% year-on-year in June, according to a first official estimate published on Friday, as the war in Ukraine continues to drive up food and energy prices.

The Stoxx 600 index was down 0.50%.

Asian stocks started the month of July lower, reversing gains from previous sessions, although Chinese manufacturing activity showed recovery in June.

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, industrial PMI, hit its highest level in a year, 51.7, above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. In the month of May, the reading came in at 48.1, coming from three straight months of contraction. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected 50.1 in June.

Japan’s manufacturing sector confidence deteriorated for the second consecutive quarter. The indicator, which measures the sentiment of major manufacturers, dropped from 14 in March to 9 in June, coming below market expectations, which had projected a retreat to 12.

in the segment of commoditiesoil prices rose on Friday after sinking in the previous session, with OPEC+ saying it would maintain its planned increases in oil production in August and investors worried about the strength of the global economy.

Iron ore retreats on prospects of a global economic slowdown, which fuels fears of a reduction in demand for raw materials.

  • WTI Oil, +2.71%, at $108.63 a barrel
  • Brent Oil, +2.80%, at $112.06 a barrel
  • Iron ore traded on the Dalian Exchange was down 6.85% to 747.50 yuan, equivalent to US$131.95.

Technical analysis by Pamela Semezatto, investment analyst and specialist in day trader by Clear Corretora

Ibovespa

“The decline continued, but still nothing very relevant for trend definition. We need to wait for the breakout of the previous bottom at 97,700 to confirm the bearish move. The month of June closed with a very selling bar and losing the previous bottom, but it also needs continuity to confirm the trend.”

Dollar

“It continues with strength in the purchase and maintaining the pattern of a negative day, with no continuity in the fall. We await the breakout of the previous top of R$5,300, for trend reversal. For now, we consider as lateralization between BRL 4,700 and BRL 5,300.”

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About Yadunandan Singh

Born in 1992, Yadunandan approaches the world of video games thanks to two sacred monsters like Diablo and above all Sonic, strictly in the Sega Saturn version. Ranging between consoles and PCs, he is particularly fond of platform titles and RPGs, not disdaining all other genres and moving in the constant search for the perfect balance between narration and interactivity.

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