2nd semester brings a whirlwind of uncertainties

JuRehder

second half

Just started, the second half of 2022 will be busy, but also full of uncertainties and tensions. Until the final stretch of this year, the country will have an electoral campaign, with Brazilians going to the polls to choose president, governor, senator and deputies, at the same time facing an economic scenario of inflation and high interest rates, in addition to the impacts of the war between Russia and Ukraine. . And, starting in November, with the result of the presidential election already defined, the nation will still be mobilized for the World Cup, in Qatar, the first to be held at this time of year, ending seven days before Christmas.

In other words, in these next six months, citizens will experience a great cauldron of events and, according to experts, it is good to “tighten their belts” for this whirlwind. Inflation, for example, which has been eroding the purchasing power of the population, should fall especially in the last quarter, with a forecast to end December with an accumulated 9%, compared to 11.73% recorded in May.

“It’s called disinflation, that is, it doesn’t mean that the prices of products will fall, but consumers will feel that they will be better behaved, with readjustments taking place at a slower pace. unemployment, the purchasing power of families will not have a significant improvement”, analyzes economist Reinaldo Cafeo.

CONSUMPTION

Due to this and the high interest rates, which inhibit access to credit, consumption – corresponding to 70% of GDP – should not accelerate, maintaining the country’s growth at a level of approximately 1%. “There will also be a retraction of new investments, which is natural in an environment of uncertainty regarding the future of the command of Brazil”, he adds.

The less optimistic economic scenario can be mitigated if the benefits package that is being processed in Congress and includes the expansion of Auxílio Brasil to R$ 600.00, an increase in the gas voucher and the granting of aid to truck drivers and taxi drivers is approved. “This, added to the reduction of taxes levied on fuels and electricity, can save the second half of the year. But, even so, I do not foresee a robust GDP for this year”, completes Cafeo.

Precisely because of the harsh reality faced by most families, the keynote of the 2022 elections will be the economy, unlike the mottos that led to the 2018 (fighting corruption) and 2020 (pandemic management) elections. “Of course, there will be a war of narratives, but unemployment, inflation, fuel prices and the loss of the population’s purchasing power must be the central focus of the debates”, analyzes Bruno Pasquarelli, PhD in Political Science and professor of International Relations .

SCRATCHS

According to him, regardless of who takes over the presidency in 2023, he will have major governance problems, considering that none of the possible elected officials will have a majority in Congress. “Furthermore, we will not have a much better economic situation than now. And, if government spending increases even more, with these benefits proposed through the PEC, the tendency is to have many political and economic problems”, he adds.

Still on the post-election moment, Pasquarelli believes that, depending on the outcome of the presidential race, there are chances that the country will witness a great social upheaval. “Due to the strong polarization in Brazil, we don’t know how fierce the mood will be, with the potential to generate episodes of violence”, he adds.

Regarding the war, the professor points out that, at the moment, countries such as Italy, France, Germany and England are seeking a negotiated solution and even a ceasefire, even if Ukraine needs to cede territories to Russia, since these European nations West are suffering economically from the conflict and being pressured by their populations. “It is not possible to predict what the outcome of these negotiations will be. What is certain is that the impacts of this war will be felt in the world, including in Brazil, for years to come”, he concludes.

Qatar World Cup will ‘fix’ with the end-of-year festivities

Douglas Reis/JC Images

Rafael Antonio, journalist and sports announcer, talks about the World Cup

For the first time, the Middle East will host the World Cup. And, also in an unprecedented way, the competition will be held at the end of the year, due to the climate of Qatar, which registers milder temperatures at this time. Brazil’s first game will be on November 24 and the final will be played on December 18, seven days before Christmas.

“The World Cup will be the anticipation of the end of the year festivities. Certainly, companies will take advantage of the days of the Brazilian National Team’s games to hold their traditional get-togethers. benefit from this moment”, evaluates journalist and sports announcer Rafael Antonio.

He recalls that, also for the first time, the tournament will take place after the presidential elections in Brazil, and not before. However, for the journalist, the change should not soften the climate of polarization and political division in the country. “The Cup is an event that makes the whole nation hope for a common outcome, which is to see the national team champion, but I don’t see it as an element capable of bringing together people with opposing ideological leanings. This division will continue”, he analyses, adding that the Brazilian team will not compete in the World Cup as a big favorite, but, as it has good players, it has chances of obtaining a favorable performance in the competition.

Bauruenses express a desire for better days, but with skepticism

In the midst of a challenging economic scenario, the people of Bauru are entering the second semester with the prospect of being a very busy period, with events such as the elections and the World Cup, but very uncertain. This Friday (2), the JC took to the streets to listen to the city’s residents, who expressed a desire for better days, however, still with some disbelief that significant advances will be achieved in these six months and even skepticism about what political agents can do. to improve the quality of their lives.

With high inflation and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the rise in prices, the reduction of the population’s consumption capacity and the erosion of family incomes are topics highlighted by most of the people heard, between men and women, of different ages and professions. . Others say, however, that citizens should not expect something from the State.

Regarding the Cup, scheduled to start at the end of November, there are those who believe that it will be an injection of spirit for Brazilians, but also those who think that the event will divert the focus from the real problems of the country. See the reviews below.

Speak people

What are your expectations for the second half of 2022?

"It's going to be a tough semester.  I've been unemployed for four years, working as a self-employed person, but things are slow, because people don't have money.  I hope it starts to improve after the elections, but I think we'll have a hard time for a few more years."Fabio Biazon, 48 years old electrician

1/11 | “It’s going to be a difficult semester. I’ve been unemployed for four years, working as a self-employed person, but things are slow, because people don’t have money. I hope it starts to improve after the elections, but I think we’ll have difficulties for a few more years. ” Fabio Biazon, 48 years old electrician / Credit: Tisa Moraes

2/11 | “Even with the rise in prices, we need to think positively. If the aid discussed in Congress is released, for example, it will help a lot to inject money into the economy.” Edson Martyr, 50 years old, sales coordinator / Credit: Tisa Moraes

11/3 | “I don’t expect anything from anyone, I just believe in myself, in my strength and will to conquer things. I always vote in elections, but I don’t expect anything from the government, regardless of what it is.” Zilda Nunes, 51, investor / Credit: Photos: Tisa Moraes

4/11 | “Unfortunately, I don’t expect much good. The World Cup will only alienate people, divert the focus from the country’s problems. Besides, you can’t trust any politician anymore, especially in an election year.” Gentil de Fátima Garrido, 66 years old, retired / Credit: Tisa Moraes

5/11 | “I sell water and, when it’s cold, sales drop. So, I haven’t been able to buy meat for over a month. Politics has a lot of lies, a lot of wrong things, but I hope things get better at the end of the year, after the elections.” João Ferreira, 76 years old, street vendor / Credit: Tisa Moraes

11/6 | “This year alone, eight friends of mine left Brazil, because the situation is difficult: everything is expensive, unemployment, difficulty maintaining a business. If it improves by 10% by the end of the year, that’s a lot. take years.” Bruno Donizette Cardoso Ferreira, 33 years old, trimmer and groomer of animals / Credit: Tisa Moraes

7/11 | “I think it’s gotten better, because the pandemic is more controlled, it’s not killing everyone anymore. The price of things is still very high, but I hope it gets better. like me.” Ramon Cassiano Nascimento, 16 years old, student and stockist / Credit: Tisa Moraes

11/8 | “I believe there is a tendency to improve, but it depends on us, especially women. It is not the government that is going to make the country better, it is just a complement in people’s lives. The responsibility is ours.” Andrea Silvana Lima, 46 years old, pensioner / Credit: Tisa Moraes

9/11 | “The tendency is to improve. Today, there are people going hungry, the market selling bones, because people cannot buy something better. We cannot accept that the country is worse than it is.” Mariana Ferreira Machado, 28 years old, Bachelor of Laws / Credit: Tisa Moraes

11/10 | “We had a pandemic and a bad government. Now, with the vaccine and the perspective of change, I believe it will get better. and R$ 7.00 per liter of milk. We need to move forward, not go back.” Maria Helena Machado, 57 years old, lawyer / Credit: Tisa Moraes

11/11 | “I hope that, as the election is close, the government will find a way to reduce prices, as it is already doing with fuel, because everything is too expensive and people’s salaries do not increase the same. optimistic.” Tais Militão, 34 years old, nurse / Credit: Tisa Moraes

Rafael Antonio, journalist and sports announcer, talks about the World Cup

11/12 | Rafael Antonio, journalist and sports announcer, talks about the World Cup / Credit: Douglas Reis/JC Images

About Abhishek Pratap

Food maven. Unapologetic travel fanatic. MCU's fan. Infuriatingly humble creator. Award-winning pop culture ninja.

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