MDB and the future of Simone Tebet: can the party give up its candidacy for the Planalto?

A little over two months before the 2022 elections, Senator Simone Tebet (MDB)’s candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic is at risk of not going forward.

The assessment is made by the analysts who participated in last Wednesday’s edition (20th) of political timingshown by the InfoMoney on Youtube. Watch the entire program on player above or by clicking here.

“On Monday, there was an important meeting between former president Lula, from the PT, with ‘caciques’ from the MDB, mainly from the Northeast, in which they declared their support for Lula. There were almost half of the states there [da região] represented and all of them declaring their support for Lula,” said Júnia Gama, a policy analyst at XP.

“The next day, these same ‘caciques’ went to talk to former president Michel Temer, asking him to work to unite the party around neutrality. They would very much like Simone Tebet’s candidacy to not even be made official by the party, because that way they are freer to support Lula in the states, to give Lula a platform, and thus also get more votes”, he added.

According to Júnia, Temer would have given signs that he could respond to this election, or at least try to extend the party’s convention a little, an online event that is currently scheduled for the 27th of this month. The intention would be to change it to August 5, the deadline determined by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for the acronyms to make their conventions.

In addition to the internal disunity in her party, Tebet also faces pressure due to her poor performance in polls – according to the latest Datafolha survey, released in June, she has 1% of voting intentions in the first round.

For political scientist Carlos Melo, a professor at Insper, if the end of Tebet’s candidacy for the Planalto is confirmed, his votes should be divided.

“Part will migrate to Lula, another part will migrate to Bolsonaro. This is what happens with the MDB. The MDB thought nationally, will be like this. The Northeast will keep Lula, the Southeast and the South of the MDB will keep Bolsonaro, a part will vote null. Now, as it is a very small contingent, we may not even feel the effect of her eventual withdrawal,” he said.

Political marketing specialist Lula Guimarães explained that party conventions do not have much weight in the voting decisions of the common voter: “it is an event more focused on the media”. According to him, voters will be much more influenced when television campaigns begin next month.

Watch the full political timing this week in the video above or Click here. The program is shown live on Wednesdays, at 18:00 (Brasilia time), on InfoMoney YouTube channel.

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