Professor at the Department of Mathematics at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Gilcione Nonato Costa explained to the supersports because he and other professionals in the area already practically guarantee access to the Cruzeiro Serie A of the Brazilian Championship.
With 73.7% of success, Cruzeiro closed the first round of Serie B having added 42 points out of 57 possible. The miners opened an advantage of seven for the vice-leader Vasco and an impressive 14 for Tombense, 5th place, the first club outside the G4.
“Statistically speaking, given the condition of Cruzeiro, it has already gone up. If the championship changed completely from now on, Cruzeiro started to make a bad score, it would score 20 points in the second round”, evaluated Gilcione.
“Cruzeiro would reach 62 and would force the 5th place to score more than 36 points in the return, and that is very difficult. For this reason, he practically already guaranteed access. He just didn’t guarantee it mathematically”, added the professor.
According to UFMG, Cruzeiro has a 98.3% chance of access. “Roughly speaking, this is equivalent to, in a deck of cards, you drawing a single specific card that would not guarantee access to the Cruzeiro. It is very unlikely”, reinforced Gilcione.
Access in which round?
The discussion among mathematicians is already about which round Cruzeiro will mathematically guarantee itself in the 2023 Series. Gilcione says that from the 28th, the miners will already be able to have enough points to confirm access.
“If you project the 5th place, Sport or Tombense, they will reach the end of the second round with 56 points (double what they have today). think about access”, said the UFMG professor.
“From the point of view of possibilities, if everything continues to go well for Cruzeiro, there is a chance of, mathematically, guaranteeing access in the 28th round. Before the 28th round, only a virtual classification would be possible”, he said.
Gilcione believes that by the 33rd round, six games from the end of Serie B, possibly in mid-October, Cruzeiro will already be guaranteed to be in the elite. “It is very likely that in round 32 or 33 he is already mathematically guaranteed in Serie A,” he explained.
And the title?
O supersports also questioned the mathematician about the fight for the title of Series B. UFMG points out Cruzeiro with a 71% chance of lifting the trophy in 2022. The sum of the probabilities of the opponents does not reach even half of that of the miners, warns the professor.
“Access is practically guaranteed, but the title is not. It’s still open. There’s Cruzeiro’s seven points fatness in relation to Vasco, maybe mathematically it can be champion with early rounds, but he still has direct confrontations”, evaluated .
“Another factor that prevents us from guaranteeing a more secure performance away from home. The current moment of instability. For him to guarantee the title more easily, he would have to recover his good performance as a visitor”, he warned.