Petrobras (PETR4) should bring strong results, but attention is once again for dividends

When Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) released its balance sheet for the first quarter of 2022, analysts consensually expected a good result and the highlight, therefore, was the distribution of earnings. This second quarter season, the scenario is not much different, with the difference that dividends can draw even more attention.

This week, the news circulated that the Federal Government asked state-owned companies to anticipate the distribution of cash to their shareholders and the Petrobras board would have discussed this possibility internally.

“For this quarter, we expect the company to announce US$ 12 billion in dividends, however, if the company anticipates values, we do not rule out the possibility of this level increasing to US$ 16 billion”, comment the Bradesco BBI analysts, in a report.

According to its operational preview, Petrobras saw its production of barrels of oil or oil equivalents (boe) fall by 5.1% both on an annual basis and on a quarterly basis. Even so, what is expected by the bank’s analysts is that the company will see its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) grow 49% compared to the same period last year and 14% in the first quarter, reaching R$ 89.1 million.

“We will have good sequential growth, mainly due to higher oil prices, which rose 13% in the quarter, and the increase in fuel prices in Brazil”, comments the BBI. “They will more than offset the fall in production and the 6% strengthening of the real in the period”.

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Bank of America shares a similar view, saying prices for oil and the company’s products should “boost the second quarter.”

“Results are expected to rise sharply both year-on-year and Q1, mainly driven by higher crude oil and refined products prices. We estimate Ebitda at R$ 86.8 billion”, say the analysts of the American bank.

BofA sees the price of oil jumping 15% on a quarterly basis, to US$ 112.85 on average, and the Ebitda of this arm standing at R$ 76.3 billion. For the refining segment, the outlook is for an Ebitda up 45% in the quarter and 101% in the year, to R$10.5 billion, with “higher product prices”.

Finally, Itaú BBA sees the company bringing an even higher Ebitda, of R$ 94 billion – the bank highlights, in addition to the factors already mentioned, that Petrobras had stored diesel and that it must, therefore, have surfed the high prices.

In net income, most banks, however, see a slight decline on a quarterly basis – from 5% for BBI to R$40.8 billion, from 11.7% for BBA to R$39.7 billion. billion, and 8% for BofA, to R$ 41.04 billion. According to the banks, this is due to non-cash effects caused by the depreciation of the real at the end of the first quarter, which weighed on the dollar-denominated debt.

According to the Refinitiv consensus with analysts, the company should record a profit of R$38 billion, Ebitda of R$83.27 billion and revenue of R$162.39 billion.

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