End of the interest rate hike cycle can be postponed

With the preview of the IPCA-15 released, economists point out that the cycle of high interest rates should be postponed

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

After the reduction of the ICMS (tax on the Circulation of Goods and Products) to 17% on fuels, telecommunications, public transport and electricity, it was expected that the preview of inflation would show some decline. This is what the IPCA-15 (Broad Consumer Price Index) pointed out for the month of July.

The index, released by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) showed a reduction of 1.51%. However, when performing a deeper analysis of the data, the result is considered worrying by analysts in the area.

Six of the nine groups covered by the survey showed high. Services, for example, registered a 0.84% ​​increase. This indicator shows that the sector should continue with rising inflation, which will prevent the rate from being controlled.

Possibility of deflation

Recently, the possibility of deflation was announced. From the index, it is possible to observe that it has already started. This drop in inflation is directly linked to the reduction of taxation on some sectors, determined by the Federal Government. The effects will still continue to show, as the legislation began to apply in June.

However, economists say that the index should continue to show poor results, as the measures implemented were focused on prices. In this sense, even though the peak of the inflation rate is in the past, the scenario is still complicated. In the 12-month period, the IPCA-15 accumulates 12.04%.

Faced with this reality, with more resistant inflation, the Central Bank finds it difficult to end the cycle of high interest rates.

According to InfoMoney, Goldman Sachs says that inflation, when operating in this way, tends to force the Central Bank to raise interest rates by 0.50 points at the next Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting. For the September determination, an even higher elevation is possible.


The Extended Consumer Price Index 15 is carried out by the IBGE and is based on the income of families with income from 1 to 40 times the minimum wage. It is one of the official indicators of inflation in the country.

The calculation considers a basket of products consumed by these families in metropolitan regions spread across the country. The difference between the IPCA and the IPCA-15 is just the information collection period.

IPCA-15 History

The IPCA-15 has been published since 2000. Check the results released this year.

  • January/2022: 0.58%;
  • February/2022: 1.58%;
  • March/2022: 2.54%;
  • April/2022: 4.31%;
  • May/2022: 4.93%;
  • June/2022: 5.65%.

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About Yadunandan Singh

Born in 1992, Yadunandan approaches the world of video games thanks to two sacred monsters like Diablo and above all Sonic, strictly in the Sega Saturn version. Ranging between consoles and PCs, he is particularly fond of platform titles and RPGs, not disdaining all other genres and moving in the constant search for the perfect balance between narration and interactivity.

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