- With little prospect of a fall until the end of 2022, the dollar remains high at the beginning of this month, quoted at R$5.27
- According to 4 investment houses, the currency can reach the level of R$5.45
- In optimistic projections, the dollar rate drops between R$ 4.70 and R$ 5.10
Roberta Picinin, special for the E-Investor – With little prospect of a fall until the end of 2022, the dollar remains high at the beginning of this month, quoted at R$5.27. According to 4 investment houses, the currency can reach the level of R$ 5.45.
In optimistic projections, analysts project the US currency between R$4.70 and R$5.10. Check out the projections below.
New Future Investments – BRL 5.45
For Nova Futura Investimentos, the projection is that the dollar will reach R$5.45 by the end of this year. The analysis of the house takes into account both the commercial dollar and the financial dollar.
With increased imports and a less favorable outlook for commodity prices, the commercial dollar may have a moderation in its surplus.
However, with the Fed raising interest rates and the Central Bank of Brazil rehearsing the end of the bullish cycle, the monetary policy disparity favors the currency. According to the broker, the more moderate outlook for commodities and a challenging scenario for economic growth in 2023 do not inspire major positive effects for the Ibovespa.
“The climate of global recession and the Brazilian presidential election, which should be troubled, raise local risk premiums, which benefits the dollar to remain high until the end of the year”, Nicolas Borsoi, chief economist at Nova Futura investments.
Front Broker – BRL 5.20
For the end of this year, the forecast by the Frente Corretora is that the exchange rate will maintain the equilibrium price, at R$ 5.20. The projected value does not significantly impact the cost of imports, which could lead to greater pressure on inflation.
Fabrizio Velloni, chief economist at the brokerage, comments that this should happen as long as there are no surprises in this year’s elections, with projects that “put even more pressure on public debt”, which with the coming of the pandemic was even more harmed.
“In the foreign market, we can see a deceleration of the economies that can reduce the price of commodities, but as a counterpoint we have the rhythm of the acceleration of interest rates, which can appreciate the dollar”, he adds.
RB Investimentos – BRL 5
In a report released this month, RB Investimentos projects a volatile scenario for the exchange rate, maintaining the base scenario of the dollar at R$ 5 for the end of 2022.
When looking at a pessimistic picture, with government distrust, fiscal commitment for 2023 in Brazil and the possible lack of American inflation control, the projection is that the dollar will rise 5% with the US interest rate reaching R$ 5.40 for Brazilians .
However, in an optimistic scenario, the broker estimates that with good internal factors depending on the national economy and politics, the currency will be around R$ 4.70.
Venice Investimentos – BRL 5.10
For André Rolha, product director at Venice Investimentos, the same fundamentals that led the dollar to rise to R$4.80 and R$4.90 remain. According to the broker, the monetary policy adopted by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) during the pandemic was the main factor for the early interest rate hike compared to global peers.
Leaving the interest rate of 2% to 13.75%, today, Brazil is once again attractive to foreign investors. The positive flow should contribute to a better performance of the real over the next few months.
With political uncertainties, the currency variation should still occur during the coming months. “The dollar can vary between R$5.20 to R$5.40, which is still an acceptable level. But in my view, a fairer exchange rate will be around R$5.10 by the end of the year,” says Rolha.
The director also highlights that the control of public accounts, the surplus in the trade balance and also the Brazilian economic activity can bring more optimistic numbers for the coming months.