The commercial dollar closed Monday at a low of 1%, quoted at R$ 5.113, in its fourth consecutive loss. For the next few days, investors await the release of inflation data from Brazil and the United States.
On Friday (22), the dollar closed the day at R$5.167, influenced by unemployment data in the United States and the prospect of the end of the cycle of interest rate hikes in Brazil. Some financial agents say that the movement was also triggered by inflows of resources in Brazilian markets.
The value of the dollar published daily by the press, including the UOL, refers to the commercial dollar. For those who are going to travel and need to buy currency at exchange brokers, the value is much higher.
Ibovespa closes higher
The Ibovespa, on the other hand, hit its fifth high in a row and closed above 108,000 points for the first time in two months this Monday (108,402.27 points), in a movement driven by the soaring of Petrobras shares among the most traded, while financial agents wait new signals about the Selic, basic interest rate. The increase was 1.81%.
In this Monday’s session, the shares of the airline Gol, SulAmérica and Rede D’or were among the biggest increases in B3.
Inflation data in Brazil
Also on the radar of domestic investors is the release tomorrow (9) of the July reading of the IPCA (Ample National Consumer Price Index), which will come shortly after the publication of the minutes of the last Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting of the Bank Central.
Last week, the autarchy raised the Selic rate by 0.50 percentage point, to 13.75%, and, although it said it would assess the need for a residual adjustment in interest rates, most markets seem to believe that this cycle of monetary tightening has already come to an end.
“The IPCA will be more relevant for bets on the next Selic rate, since [o dado] coming in lower than expected could give greater confidence about the end of the hike in the benchmark interest rate,” wrote strategists at Travelex.
In general, high borrowing costs in Brazil tend to benefit the local fixed-income market, boosting its yields and, consequently, attracting funds from foreign investors, which usually helps in the appreciation of the real.
Nexgen’s Izac said the dollar could drop further to R$5.10 over the second half of this year, after soaring above R$5.50 in mid-July during an international scenario. adverse.