Soy BR: Prices find support in still high premiums with lows in…

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Alongside new lows being registered by soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange, oilseed prices formed in Brazil still felt the pressure of the dollar against the real, which plummeted more than 1% this Monday (8), with the currency ending the day almost hitting R$ 5.10.

Thus, as reported by Brandalizze Consulting consultant, Vlamir Brandalizze, the over-the-counter market registered prices up to R$1.00 per bag lower than last Friday (5), with references in Rio Grande do Sul ranging from R$173.00 to R$177.00, in other parts of southern Brazil from R$167.00 to R$177.00.

In the lots market, buyers asked between R$187.00 and R$188.00 per bag, with August/September position, up to R$190.00 for September delivery and October payment and, in the operation with delivery now and payment January, R$ 195.00, against R$ 198.00 in the last Friday.

“The market is giving up because of these rains that are falling and people have to start cleaning the warehouse so they don’t lose this corn that is in time and part of it goes to the warehouse, or to a dryer, part for export. So, you have to start freeing up warehouses to make room, so now it’s a rush and the producer is the one who loses. With a lot of supply, the market ends up losing steam”, explains Brandalizze.

What still helps to balance the market and prices for domestic soy are the premiums, which remain at high levels, despite some stability. They are values ​​in the range of 250 to 255 cents of the dollar over Chicago per bushel for September, which helps to hold the quotations, at least partially.

CHICAGO SCHOLARSHIP

In Chicago, losses on major contracts were 8.50 to 9.25 points, taking November to $14.00 and January to $14.07 a bushel.

the resumption of business is influenced by the fundamentals – especially the weather in the Corn Belt and the lack of rain in the west of the belt still expected for the next few days -, the geopolitics and the macroeconomics, however, with an extra spice since on Friday Friday, August 12, comes the new monthly supply and demand report from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture).

The central expectations of the market are, this month, about the possibility of a reduction in the productive potential, both of soybeans and corn. So, pay attention to the size of the American crop and ending stocks.

Also on Monday, the USDA brought new sales of soybeans and corn to China and other destinations, helping to support commodity prices.

CLIMATE IN THE USA

Another week begins with rains concentrated further east of the Corn Belt and the west still causing concerns.

“The players analyze the climate models that continue to diverge, however, without a huge difference. The European Model removed most of the rains from the Corn Belt, while the American Model shows a much drier climate for the next 10 days. Forecasts indicate that the Crop Progress (USDA’s weekly crop monitoring bulletin) will be stable or with a 1% reduction in the good/excellent conditions of soybean and corn crops. We may have new surprises”, says the director general of Grupo Labhoro, Ginaldo Sousa.

Maps updated this Monday by NOAA, the official US weather service,
show precisely these conditions in the periods of the next five and seven days.

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