The Ibovespa closed up 0.17% this Wednesday (17), at 113,707 points. The main index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange managed to take off from the benchmarks Americans, who retreated.
In New York, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 0.50%, 0.72% and 1.25%, respectively.
In part, investors continue to position themselves with caution abroad, trying to interpret the signals that the publication of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) brought, with the document having generated different interpretations.
“Mercado thought that the minutes of the Fomc came with a more hawkish [com tendência de contração monetária]with investors seeing greater chances of an increase of 0.75 percentage point in the next meeting”, explains Rodrigo Crespi, an analyst at Guide Investimentos.
As for Leandro Petrokas, director of research from Quantzed, the publication came with a tone of caution, making the market react well – despite having closed in the reds, the main American indices were far from their lows of the day.
Some experts, however, took a reading that the document was more lenient than expected.
“In our opinion, the minutes were more dovish [com tendência menor de contração monetária] than we expected. They reinforced that they are at a neutral level for the long term, but with some members disagreeing, which leaves a doubt. They also emphasized the heated activity and did not bring anything new in relation to the balance of assets”, explains Ubirajara Silva, manager of Galápagos.
O treasury yield for ten years closed up eight basis points, at 2.904%, far from the maximum of 2.919%.
“After a stronger dollar start to the day against emerging currencies, the minutes brought a slightly more dovish than the market expected, with the neutral interest rate already closer”, completes Fábio Guarda, manager of Galápagos. “This brought relief to the currencies, which returned some of the devaluation, including the real”.
The commercial dollar advanced 0.53% against the Brazilian currency, at R$5.167 in purchases and R$5.168 in sales, with the maximum at the beginning of the day, at R$5.213.
The Brazilian yield curve also ended up pressured. The DIs for 2023 had their rates up one point, to 13.72%, and those for 2025, 17 points, to 11.87%. In the middle of the curve, the contracts for 2027 and 2029 saw their yields jump, respectively, 15 and 11 points, to 11.58% and 11.72%. The DI for 2031, on the long end, rose seven points to 11.81%.
“In Brazil, with the dollar and the interest curve on the rise, stocks reacted to this. Suzano (SUZB3) and Klabin ([ativo=KBLN11]) had a positive day. Minerva (BEEF3), JBS (JBSS3) and Marfrig (MRFG3) also benefited from the dollar”, explains Gustavo Cruz, strategist at RB Investimentos. “On the opposite side, Americanas (AMER3), Via (VIIA3) and Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) were negative highlights, in sync with the yield curve”.
According to the expert, commodity companies still benefited from news from China. Reports have come that the Asian giant’s prime minister, Li Keqiang, has pledged more fiscal stimulus through government bond issues and urged provinces to adopt growth-enhancing measures.
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