Treasury Direct: fixed rate rates have 3rd session high and reach 12.21% with aversion to external risk

Stock markets are taken by greater pessimism this Friday (19) and risky assets give the first signs that the recovery movement of stock markets seen in the last two months seems to lose strength.

At the same time, the dollar advances over the real and interest rates follow the upward movement driven by more aggressive speeches in the fight against inflation made the day before (18) by leaders of the Federal Reserve (Fed, American central bank).

At around 9:20 am (Brasília time), the yields offered by US bonds (treasuries) showed an increase of more than 1% for maturities from one year onwards – and papers with maturities between five and ten years recorded an increase of almost 3%.

For Dan Kawa, partner at TAG Investimentos, the market today seems to reflect higher inflation indicators, especially in developed countries, released throughout the week, along with statements by Fed members warning of the need to continue monetary tightening.

In his blog, the executive argued that inflationary pressures tend to persist for longer, even if there is some cooling off in commodity prices. “This will demand higher interest rates, even at a time of global slowdown.”

On a day with an empty agenda in Brazil, investors monitor election polls for president and also reflect on Treasury auctions, which have been helping to push up the returns of the papers.

In the Treasury Direct, public bond rates operate higher this morning, with advances of up to 18 basis points (0.18 percentage point). The increase is greater among fixed rate securities, which are usually more sensitive to changes in monetary policy and which are going through the third session followed by expansion.

Highlight for the interest of the Treasury Prefixed 2025 and the Prefixed 2033 papers. At 9:30 am, both offered the same percentage of return, in the amount of 12.21% per year. The day before, the first security yielded a return of 12.03% per year and the second of 12.10% per year.

The data draws attention because longer-term papers tend to offer higher interest rates, because the risk of changes in the scenario that can affect investments is greater.

The highest real interest delivered by inflation-linked papers was offered by the Treasury IPCA+2055, in the amount of 5.91% per year. A day earlier, the security offered 5.94% per annum.

Check the prices and rates of all public securities available for purchase at the Treasury Direct this Friday morning (19):

Source: Direct Treasure

Commodities, UK and Germany

After closing higher for two consecutive sessions, oil prices fell this Friday. At around 9:50 am ET, Brent was down 1.81% to $94.84 and WTI was down 1.62% to $89.03.

On the ore market, Dalian and Singapore futures hit a new low on Friday and headed for their biggest weekly drop since mid-July, as concern about demand for the steel ingredient in China rises as its economy shows. signs of deceleration.

A heat wave in China, the biggest steelmaker, has brought electricity rationing, forcing some mills to halt operations. This has raised concerns about iron ore demand.

In Europe, investors reflect Germany’s producer price index (PPI), which jumped 37.2% in July compared to the same month in 2021, according to data published this Friday by statistics agency Destatis. from the country.

The result was well above the expectations of analysts interviewed by the The Wall Street Journalwhich projected an increase of 31.5%.

The annual rate of PPI had accelerated to 32.7% in June. Compared to the previous month, the index rose 5.3% in July. It was the biggest increase from one month to the next ever recorded in the historical series. Experts had expected an increase of 0.7% in the monthly comparison.

UK retail data is also featured. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), sales volume in the sector grew 0.3% on a monthly basis, but retreated 3.4% on an annual basis.

Economists consulted by the The Wall Street Journal expected retail sales to drop 0.2% in July.

In non-store retail – predominantly online retailers – sales increased 4.8% in the month of July.

Datafolha and tax increase

Two days after the official start of the electoral campaign period, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) maintained his leadership in the dispute for the Planalto Palace. This is what a survey released yesterday (18) by the Datafolha Institute, commissioned by the Globo Group and by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo.

According to the survey, Lula was left with 47% of the voting intentions in a stimulated scenario of the first round – a level maintained since the penultimate poll released by the institute, on June 22. Bolsonaro has risen and now has the support of 32% of the electorate – which represents an accumulated growth of 5 percentage points since May 25.

Also on the political scene, Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, said yesterday (18) that the government intends to increase taxation for those who earn more, simplifying taxes in return. “The collection base increases and this larger collection mass pays the income transfer”, he commented.

During participation in a BTG Pactual event, the minister defended a mix of economic policy based on government social action, private investment and better management of public capital.

About Yadunandan Singh

Born in 1992, Yadunandan approaches the world of video games thanks to two sacred monsters like Diablo and above all Sonic, strictly in the Sega Saturn version. Ranging between consoles and PCs, he is particularly fond of platform titles and RPGs, not disdaining all other genres and moving in the constant search for the perfect balance between narration and interactivity.

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