Series B champion cruiser? Mathematician says when this can happen

Cruzeiro has a 70% chance of being champion
photo: Staff Images/Cruise

Cruzeiro has a 70% chance of being champion in a duel against Guarani, says UFMG mathematician

Professor at the Department of Mathematics at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Gilcione Costa designed in which round Cruzeiro could lift the Serie B trophy of the Brazilian Championship.

With ten rounds to go, Raposa leads the competition and has, in 28 games, 59 points – nine more than vice-leader Bahia. According to UFMG, this gives the celestial team a 95.1% chance of winning the national title. Tricolor has 3.7%, followed by Grmio (0.86%) and Vasco (0.31%).

“Cruzeiro can be champion in round 32. But the probability is very small: 0.02%. It is very unlikely. But notice, in round 33 it rises to 4%, in round 34 it stops to 17%, and arrives in round 35 with 42 % chance. In the 36th round, against Guarani, in Mineiro, the chances go to 70%”, projected Gilcione to the Superesportes Interview podcast.

In the 35th round, Cruzeiro will face Vila Nova in a game scheduled for October 14 (Friday), at 8:30 pm, at the Oba stadium, in Goinia-GO. The next duel, for the 36th round, will be against Guarani, in Belo Horizonte. There is still no decision on the date and time of departure.

“Cruzeiro has a 5% chance of not being the champion. He has a very good home team history. In fact, for Cruzeiro not to be the champion, it has to be another Brazilian with ten games to go. champion”, explained the teacher.

final score

Also while participating in the podcast, Gilcione showed a study in which he points out how many points Cruzeiro should close this edition of Series B with.

“Cruzeiro has a 56% chance of having 74 points. With this score, if he confirms the trend, he already has a 98.8% chance of being champion. That is, it is very unlikely that he will not be the champion”, said.

“The score I estimate for Cruzeiro at the end of the competition is 74, 76 points. If it reaches 81 points, 100% is the title chance. If you think about it, Cruzeiro has a fat of the 2nd place, the 5th place. Or In other words, Cruzeiro will qualify and will be the champion. It’s normality”, concluded Gilcione.

Round-by-round title chance

32nd round – Ponte Preta x Cruzeiro – 0.06%

33rd round – Cruzeiro vs Ituano – 4.07%

34th round – Sport x Cruzeiro – 16.9%

35th round – Vila Nova x Cruzeiro – 42.2%

36th round – Cruzeiro x Guarani – 69.4%

37th round – Novorizontino x Cruzeiro – 85.6%

38th round – Cruzeiro vs CSA – 94.9%


About Abhishek Pratap

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