The scenario pointed out by Datafolha for the 2nd round, with 53% of the votes for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and 39% for Jair Bolsonaro (PL), shows a slight approximation of the current president. While Lula remained stable, Bolsonaro fluctuated positively by one percentage point. for the columnist UOL José Roberto de Toledo, the tendency is for the current president to get closer to the PT candidate.
During the Research AnalysisToledo also highlighted that Bolsonaro, little by little, has been able to reduce his rejection by the electorate.
“This research shows that Bolsonaro’s medium-term tendency is to lean on Lula. said.
The columnist of UOL he also highlighted that, in a probable 2nd round, the speed of approaching one candidate to another, when he “steals” votes, is much higher. “Every change counts double because every point one candidate loses, the other wins. Automatically one point becomes two.”
Finally, Toledo also pointed to the female electorate as the major weakness of the current president’s campaign. “If Bolsonaro is behind, it’s because of just one segment of the electorate, it’s called women.
Bombig: Bolsonaro’s goal is to push to the 2nd round and survive
For Alberto Bombig, the Datafolha poll turned out to be better for Bolsonaro than for Lula. Although there is still a considerable distance between the candidates, the current president is getting closer to reaching his goal, which is to take the elections to the 2nd round.
“Bolsonaro has been narrowing [a diferença], every time Datafolha comes out, Lula’s chance of winning in the 1st round decreases. It seems that in this tune we will have the 2nd round, and I think Bolsonaro’s objective, at this moment, is to push for the 2nd round and survive,” he said during the interview. Research Analysis.
Despite the PT candidate appearing stagnant in the polls, Bombig also pointed out that the result is not all bad, since Lula does not decrease in voting intentions and the elections are getting closer.
“Again, I don’t think the poll is good for Lula. difficult for him to surpass Lula”.
Toledo: Election will be defined in SP, MG and among female voters
for the columnist UOL José Roberto de Toledo, the tendency is for the election to be defined in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and by the female electorate.
“Elections are defined in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and among women. The rest has weight and is important, but what makes the difference in these elections, specifically, are these two states and this half and a little more of the electorate, which is the female electorate”, he said during the Research Analysis.
He also pointed out that in the Southeast region, the scenario remained stable with 49% of voting intentions for Lula and 41% for Bolsonaro in the 2nd round. “I’m looking at data from the Southeast, and in the 2nd shift simulation nothing has changed compared to last week”
O Research Analysis it always airs after the publication of Ipec or Datafolha polls for the Presidency of the Republic.
When: every week after the publication of an Ipec or Datafolha survey.
Where to watch: live at home UOL, UOL on YouTube and Facebook from UOL. See the full program: