Datafolha: Lula leads with 45%; Bolsonaro goes to 34%

Former minister Ciro Gomes (PDT) has 7%, compared to 5% for senator Simone Tebet; The survey was carried out between the 8th and 9th of September and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points

SUAMY BEYDOUN/AGIF – PHOTOGRAPHY AGENCY/ESTADÃO CONTENTS Clauber Cleber Caetano/PR Reproduction / Twitter @cirogomes Flickr Simone TebetMounting
The most recent Datafolha survey was released on Friday night, 9

23 days before the first round of elections, the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (EN) remains in the lead in the race to Palácio do Planalto. This is what the latest research shows Datasheet, released on the night of this Friday, 9th. According to the survey, PT has 45% of voting intentions. In second place is the president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), which reached 34%. the former minister Ciro Gomes (PDT) has 7%, compared to 5% for the senator Simone Tebet (MDB). the senator Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil) has 1% of the voting intentions. Pablo Marçal (Pros), Luiz Felipe d’Avila (Novo), Vera Lúcia (PSTU), Sofia Manzano (PCB), José Maria Eymael (Christian Democracy), Léo Péricles (Popular Unit) and Father Kelman (PTB) did not score – the PTB candidate was not in the previous poll. Blanks and nulls are 4%. Another 3% did not know how to respond.

The survey, completed this Friday, began to be carried out on Thursday, the 8th, the day after the demonstrations on September 7th promoted by supporters of the current president of the country in several cities in the country, with emphasis on the acts on Avenida Paulista ( SP), in Copacabana (RJ) and in Esplanada dos Ministérios (DF). The survey, commissioned by the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo and by TV Globo, it has a margin of error of more or less two percentage points, heard 2,676 voters in 191 cities and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the number BR-07422/2022.

In the previous poll, released on September 1, Lula had 45%, against 32% for Bolsonaro. That is, in this period, the President of the Republic oscillated positively by two points, within the margin of error. In numerical terms, the PL candidate reaches his highest level of voting intentions since December. More than that, it is the smallest distance between the two main candidates since May, when the PT had a lead of 21 points (48% to 27% at the time). In relation to the last survey, Ciro fluctuated negatively by two points, also within the margin, while Tebet remained stagnant. In the scenario presented on September 1st, Soraya, Marçal and d’Avila (Novo) had 1%. Vera Lúcia, Manzano, Eymael, Léo Péricles and Roberto Jefferson (PTB) did not score. In this new interval, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) barred the candidacies of Marçal and Jefferson.

Second round and spontaneous research

Datafolha also tested second-round scenarios. In an eventual clash on October 30, Lula would beat Bolsonaro by 53% to 39%. In relation to the survey at the beginning of the month, the former president maintained the same index, while the president of the country, who is seeking reelection, fluctuated positively by one point. In the spontaneous poll, when the names of the candidates are not presented, Lula has 39%, compared to 31% for Bolsonaro, 4% for Ciro and 2% for Tebet; 3% of voters gave other answers. Blanks and nulls are 4%. Another 17% did not know how to respond.


Also according to Datafolha, the rejection rate for candidates remained stable. According to the institute, 51% of voters say they do not vote for Bolsonaro at all – at the beginning of the month, the index was at 52%. The PT candidate, in turn, is rejected by 39%, the same level as in the last poll. Ciro Gomes is rejected by 24%, against 14% of the MDB parliamentarian. Among women, who represent the majority of the Brazilian electorate (52% of the total), the current president of the Republic continues to be rejected more (55%) than at a general level. Lula, in turn, oscillates downwards, reducing his index to 36%. The maintenance of the rejection of the former president of the Republic occurs at a time when Bolsonaro raised the tone in his campaign acts. In recent days, the PL candidate has called his opponent a “thief”, “a gangster” and an “ex-convict”.

‘Brazil Aid Effect’

Among those who receive up to two minimum wages, the majority of the Brazilian electorate and the target audience for Auxílio Brasil, Lula maintains a wide advantage, with 54% of the voting intentions. Bolsonaro, in turn, has 26%. In practice, Datafolha’s figures show that the package of kindnesses of more than R$41 billion approved by the National Congress about three months before the election has not yet generated the effect expected by the Bolsonar campaign. In the agendas and in radio and TV advertisements, the President of the Republic has highlighted that the value of the benefit has increased from R$ 400 to R$ 600, which replaced the Bolsa Família, a flag of the PT governments. On the other hand, the Lula HQ has said that the readjustment has an electoral nature, highlighting, among other things, that the Budget Law Project sent by Palácio do Planalto provides, from 2023, payments in the amount of R$ 405.

About Abhishek Pratap

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