State elections can be defined in the first round in at least 12 states and the Federal District, according to surveys Datafolha and Ipec carried out in the last two weeks.
Among the candidates with more than 50% in the projections of valid votes are ten governors who are running for reelection and two former mayors of capital who are vying for government in the opposition camp.
The scenarios may change, as in most states there is a high level of undecided or unconvinced votes. The tendency, however, is for many governors to be reelected.
Of the 19 names running for a new term, 16 lead in isolation. São Paulo is the only state where the governor is chasing rivals. Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB), who ascended to the position in April this year, in place of João Doria, is in third place.
Datafolha poll released last Thursday (1st) shows Garcia with 15% of voting intentions, against 21% for Bolsonarista Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) and 35% for Fernando Haddad (PT).
Another three governors face a technical tie, according to Ipec. In two cases, there is a fierce dispute with former managers. In Amazonas, Wilson Lima (União Brasil) has 30% of the voting intentions and is numerically tied with Amazonino Mendes (Citizenship). In Rondônia, governor Marcos Rocha (União Brasil) also has 30% and ties in the margin of error with Ivo Cassol (PP).
The third state with a technical tie is Alagoas: Governor Paulo Dantas (MDB) has 24%, compared to 21% for Senator Rodrigo Cunha (União Brasil). Senator Fernando Collor (PTB) is close behind, with 17%.
In another 15 states, the expectation is for a definition in the second round, with up to five candidates with chances in the dispute.
The trend, however, is that between three and five states replicate the national polarization that is being drawn for a possible second round between former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the race for the Planalto, like SP and RJ.
In the largest electoral college in the country, polls indicate a dispute between Haddad and Tarcísio. In Rio de Janeiro, the third largest electoral college, the clash tends to be between governor Cláudio Castro (PL) and deputy Marcelo Freixo (PSB). Together, the two states gather 30% of the Brazilian electorate.
Another state that tends to replicate the polarization is Sergipe, but the course of the race depends on the Electoral Justice. Leader in the polls, Bolsonarista Valmir de Francisquinho (PL) was considered ineligible by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) for abuse of economic power and remains in the election with injunctions.
In Pernambuco and Paraíba, candidates who support Lula, but are not supported by him, stand out in the polls: Congresswoman Marília Arraes (Solidariedade) and Governor João Azevêdo (Citizenship). The other spot for the final round, however, is tangled up between at least three names in each of the states.
In another five, the dispute is between Bolsonaristas and candidates who support third-way presidential candidates or declare themselves neutral. The main example is Rio Grande do Sul, where polls indicate a clash between former governor Eduardo Leite (PSDB) and Onyx Lorenzoni (PL), Bolsonaro’s former minister. If the scenario materializes, Leite will try to attract votes from Lula’s voters.
In three states, it is estimated that names endorsed by Lula will face candidates who claim to be neutral, although there is a possibility that they will join the Bolsonarista camp in the second round, as in Ceará, where federal deputy and leader in polls Captain Wagner ( União Brasil) adopted neutrality in the presidential election, even supported by the PL and Bolsonaro.
Wagner has reinforced that he does not follow the president: “I have never been the supporter who says amen to everything and at no time am I the opponent who criticizes everything”, he said, in August, in a Saturday interview with Folha de S.Paulo and UOL.
Santa Catarina and Rondônia, states in which Bolsonaro is favorite, are on the way to having a second round disputed between two supporters of the president. On the other hand, Maranhão must have a clash between two Lula supporters: Governor Carlos Brandão (PSB) and Senator Weverton Rocha (PDT).
Elections that end in the first round will be crucial in the national chess, as the victors will be able to dedicate themselves to the role of electoral cables for Lula and Bolsonaro in an eventual final round – the 12 states with a chance of immediate victory represent more than 60 million voters. voters, 40% of the total.
The tendency is for strong candidates who remain equidistant from the presidential election, as in the case of the governors of Pará, Helder Barbalho (MDB), and Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), come down from the wall in the second round to support, respectively, the former president. president and the current chief executive.
“Elected governors will enter the field without the responsibility of dedicating themselves to their own campaigns”, says political scientist Luciana Santana, from the Federal University of Alagoas.
On the other hand, state leaders who currently support Bolsonaro, but are not part of the root nucleus of Bolsonarism, may avoid a more incisive stance, seeking bridges with Lula if he reaches the second round as the favorite, as polls show. The PT has signaled that he should seek the support of parties such as the MDB, PSD and even the União Brasil in a possible clash with Bolsonaro.
Candidates who can win in the first round, according to Ipec and Datafolha
- MG”Romeu Zema (New)
- PR” Junior Mouse (PSD)
- BA”ACM Neto (Brazil Union)
- PA” Helder Barbalho (MDB)
- DF”Ibaneis Rocha (MDB)
- GO”Ronaldo Caiado (Union Brazil)
- RN”Fatima Bezerra (PT)
- MT”Mauro Mendes (Union Brazil)
- ES”Renato Casagrande (PSB)
- PI”Sílvio Mendes (Union Brazil)
- TO”Wanderlei Barbosa (Republicans)
- AC” Gladson Cameli (PP)
- RR”Antonio Denarium (PP)