Lula has 41% and Bolsonaro, 35%, according to BTG/FSB poll

PT fell 1 percentage point compared to previous survey; the Chief Executive has gone up 1 point

the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) has 41% of voting intentions against 35% of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), according to a poll BTG/FSB released this Monday (12.Sep.2022). In the last survey, a week ago, the PT had 42%, compared to 34% for the Chief Executive.

Here are the percentages recorded in the 1st round by all candidates who are in the dispute for the Plateau:

  • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): 41% (was 42% in the previous survey);
  • Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 35% (had 34%);
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT): 9% (had 8%);
  • Simone Tebet (MDB): 7% (had 6%);
  • Felipe D’Ávila (New): 1% (did not score in the previous survey);
  • Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil): 1% (had 1%).

Jose Maria Eymael (A.D), Vera Lucia (PSTU), Sofia Manzano (PCB) and Leonardo Pericles (UP) together had 1% of voting intentions. Blanks and nulls add up to 2%. Don’t know or didn’t answer are 1%. And they will not vote for any candidate, 3%.

Pablo Marçal (Pros) registered 1% of voting intentions in the previous survey. In this one, the politician’s name was not listed, as his candidacy was rejected by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court).

The survey conducted 2,000 telephone interviews from September 9 to 11, 2022. It is registered in the TSE with the number BR-06321/2022. The margin of error is 2 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. It cost R$ 128,957.83 and was paid by the BTG Pactual bank. Here is the complete survey (1MB).

2nd TURN

In the simulation of a 2nd round between Lula and Bolsonaro, the PT would win with 51% of the votes and the president would get 38%. Last week, the score was 53% to 40% for the former president.

If the dispute is between Lula and Ciro, the PT would win by 46% to 35%, maintaining the score from the previous survey. In the scenario between the former president and senator Simone Tebet, the score is 48% for Lula against 34% for Tebet.

If Bolsonaro moves to the 2nd stage with Ciro, the PDT candidate would win the dispute by 50% to 38%. In a dispute between Bolsonaro and Tebet, the senator gets 48% and the president, 40%.

REJECTION

According to the survey, Lula has a 47% rejection rate – 1 percentage point more than in the last survey, when PT scored 46%. Bolsonaro rose 1 point and recorded 56% rejection (was 55%). Ciro Gomes scored 47% (was 49%).

The lowest rejection is by Vera Lúcia, with 35%, Felipe D’Ávila, with 36%, and Simone Tebet, with 37%.

GOVERNMENT ASSESSMENT

The survey shows that 34% rated the Bolsonaro government as “great / good” (compared to 33% in the previous survey). Another 20% (compared to 19%) said they considered the current management “regular” and 44% (compared to 46%), “bad / terrible”.

POWERDATA

Search PowerDate held from September 4 to 6, 2022 showed that Lula has a 6 percentage point advantage over Bolsonaro in the 1st round. The PT has 43%; the president scores 37%.

Cyrus has 8%. Technically ties with Tebet (5%) by a margin of error of 2 percentage points. The other candidates did not have enough mentions to score.

The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power 360 Journalism, with its own resources. Data were collected from September 4 to 6, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,500 interviews in 317 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-03760/2022.

To reach 3,500 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerDate makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees who faithfully represent the entire population are found. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.

RESEARCH AGGREGATOR

O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.

The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Research Aggregator clicking here.

Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, Click here.

About Abhishek Pratap

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