A survey carried out by Itaú BBA with 46 Brazilian institutional investors shows that 52.2% have a positive view of the Brazilian stock market for the next three months, while only 6.5% have a negative view and 41.3% are neutral. .
As for the US stock market, 70.5% of investors are pessimistic or have a negative view. The number of optimists was reduced to just 4.5% of respondents.
The survey took place from August 24 to September 1. Among the 46 respondents, 56.5% are fund managers and 43.5% are industry analysts.
Among the preferred sectors of the investors consulted in the market are utilities (public service companies, such as electricity and sanitation), with 67.4% of the votes; consumer and retail goods (58.7%); large banks (56.5%); health (41.3%); and transport and logistics (37%).
The preferred stock of market agents is Eletrobras (ELET3;ELET6), indicated by 34.8% of investors. still between the three top picks are Itaú (ITUB3; ITUB4), with 19.6%, and Localiza (RENT3), with 17.4% of the votes.
The list of top picks also includes Petrobras (13%), Sabesp (8.7%), BTG (8.7%), Rumo (8.7%) and Eneva (8.7%).
The sectors with a performance below expectations were mining and steel (73.9%), construction companies (65.2%), education (56.5%), pulp and paper (52.2%) and telecommunications (50% ).
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Vision about Brazil
Regarding the main factors observed in companies that contribute to optimism for the Brazilian market, investors cited strong cash flow generation (50%), expectations of earnings revisions (43.5%) and valuation (evaluation) attractive considering the historical average (43.5%).
The least relevant factors in the evaluation were: defensive portfolio (15.2%), high dividend yield (13%) and strong growth (6.5%).
Among the factors that should affect the Brazilian market in the next three months, investors highlighted global inflation (50%), global yield curve (45.7%) and elections (45.7%).
The list includes, to a lesser extent, the Brazilian yield curve (43.5%), commodity prices (23.9%), local inflation (21.7%) and fiscal perspectives and credit policies (17.4%).
And the United States?
As for the United States and other international markets, the outlook is negative, which is also reflected in the allocation of market agents consulted.
Among those interviewed, 65.8% indicated that they have between zero and 5% of their managed assets invested in foreign companies. Already 15.8% have between 5% and 10% allocated abroad. Only 7.9% of respondents have a position that exceeds 25%.
A good part of the interviewees (45.2%) indicated that they had a cash position of up to 5%, while 21.4% of the investors expressed having between 5% and 10%. Only 14.3% have more than 25% of the managed resources allocated to cash.
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Commodities with better prospects
Asked about the commodities that should have a good performance in the next three months, the main choice was oil and derivatives, pointed out by 65.9% of respondents. Also noteworthy are the calls soft commodities (agricultural or livestock products) with 22.7% of preference.
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