After a high start to the session for Ibovespa futures and a fall for the dollar, the market registered a turnaround in the wake of the release of US inflation data.
The consumer price index (CPI) in the United States rose 0.1% in August, compared with July. Inflation for the consumer shows an increase of 8.3% in the accumulated in 12 months, a deceleration in relation to July (+8.5%). Despite the slowdown, the data came higher than expected by the market, as the consensus was for a deflation of 0.1% on a monthly basis and an increase of 8.1% on an annual basis, according to Refinitiv.
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy (whose prices are more volatile), rose 0.6% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year, also better than expected. The Refinitiv forecast for the core was up 0.3% month on month from 6.1% year on year.
The consumer price data was highly expected by investors, since any numbers very different from those projected and information on core inflation could affect expectations for the next Fomc meeting, on the 21st. With inflation higher than expected , the expectation is for a more aggressive Federal Reserve in relation to interest rate hikes.
Thus, at 9:40 am (Brasília time), the Ibovespa futures contract maturing in October registered a drop of 0.88%, at 113.6255 points. The dollar futures for October rose 1.28%, at R$5.1855; the commercial dollar rose 1.14%, to R$5.155 in purchases and R$5.156 in sales.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq futures indexes started to fall sharply, respectively, by 0.99%, 1.38% and 1.96%.
In the commodity market, oil prices are volatile and operate almost stable. Earlier, they were up about 1% this morning after falling early in the morning as supply concerns mount in the Northern Hemisphere winter.
On the domestic agenda, the volume of the service sector grew 1.1% in Brazil in July compared to June, in the seasonally adjusted series. This is the third positive result in a row, period in which it accumulates a gain of 2.4%. The volume of services increased by 6.3% compared to the same period in 2021.
The results came better than expected by the market, as the Refinitiv consensus estimated a rise of 0.5% in the monthly comparison and 5.8% in the annual comparison.
Attention should also be given to electoral polls: in a new round after the events of September 7, a poll by the Ipec institute released on Monday recorded a positive change of 2 percentage points for former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), which reached 46% of thes intentionit’s of votes, and stability for the president and candidate for reelection Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who kept 31%. The survey was carried out between the days September 9th and 11th.
Investors also monitor Europe’s indicator agenda. German investor confidence fell more than expected in September as prospects for Europe’s biggest economy dimmed on concerns about energy supplies, according to an economic sentiment index released by the Zew institute.
The index fell to -61.9 points, from -55.3 points in August. A Reuters poll pointed to a September reading of -60.0. The prospect of winter power shortages has made expectations of much of German industry even more negative, the ZEW institute said on Tuesday. “Along with the more negative assessment of the current situation, the outlook for the next six months has deteriorated further,” said ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.
Germany’s annual inflation rate accelerated in August. According to final data released by German statistics office Destatis on Tuesday, consumer prices (CPI) rose 7.9% in the year as measured by national standards, in line with the forecast of economists in a survey by the Wall. Street Journal. In June, the CPI rose 7.5%.
UK unemployment fell to 3.6% in the three months to July, the lowest since 1974. Growing labor market tightening could fuel further inflationary pressure and raise concerns for the Bank of England.
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