Ipec: Lula goes from 44% to 46%, and Bolsonaro remains with 31% | Election poll

Ipec survey released this Monday (12), commissioned by Globe, shows the former president Squid (PT) with 46% of voting intentions and the president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) with 31% in the election for the Presidency of the Republic in 2022.

In relation to the previous survey by Ipec, of 5 September, Lula fluctuated within the margin of error, up or down two percentage points — before he had 44%; Bolsonaro remained with the same percentage as then.

According to IPEC, the result indicates a scenario of stability in the dispute.

Ciro Gomes (PDT) comes next, with 7% of intentions. In the previous poll, he had 8% — also a fluctuation within the margin of error. Simone Tebet (MDB) remained with the 4% of last week’s Ipec.

Felipe d’Avila (New) and Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil) remained at 1%. Vera (PSTU), Constituent Eymael (DC), Léo Péricles (UP), Father Kelmon (PTB), Sofia Manzano (PCB) were mentioned, but they do not reach 1% each. Pablo Marçal (Pros) was not included in the IPEC survey because the TSE rejected his candidacy.

Stimulated voting intention

  • Squid (EN): 46% (44% in previous survey, on Sept.)
  • Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 31% (31% in the previous survey)
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT): 7% (8% in the previous survey)
  • Simone Tebet (MDB): 4% (4% in previous survey)
  • Felipe d’Avila (New): 1% (1% in previous survey)
  • Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil): 1% (1% in the previous survey)
  • Will see (PSTU): 0% (0% in previous survey)
  • Eymael Constituent (DC): 0% (0% in previous survey)
  • Leo Pericles (UP): 0% (0% in previous survey)
  • Father Kelmon (PTB): 0% (not in previous survey)
  • Sofia Manzano (PCB): 0% (0% in previous survey)
  • white/null: 6% (6% in previous survey)
  • Don’t know/didn’t answer: 4% (5% in previous survey)

The survey heard 2,512 people between the 9th and 11th of September in 158 municipalities. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points, given a 95% confidence level. The research was registered at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-01390/2022.

Research shows that Lula is doing better:

  • among those who negatively evaluate the Bolsonaro administration (it was 75% to 76%);
  • among those who live in the Northeast (61%, compared to 56% in the previous survey);
  • among families with a monthly income of one minimum wage (55%, compared to 56% in the previous survey);
  • in households where at least one person receives assistance from the federal government (55%, compared to 50% in the previous survey);
  • among people with elementary education (55%, against 54% in the previous round);
  • among Catholics (52%, against 50% previously);
  • between blacks and browns (50%, compared to 47% in the previous survey).

Bolsonaro is doing better:

  • among those who think his management is great or good (82%, against 79% on September 5th);
  • among evangelicals (48%, up from 46% last week);
  • among those who live in the South (41%, compared to 39% last week) and Central-West (39%, compared to 40% in the previous survey);
  • among men (remains with 36%);
  • among those who have secondary education (continues with 35%).

Ipec also surveyed the intention to vote in the second round. Lula wins by 53% to 36% in the researched scenario. The institute says it is not possible to say at this moment whether or not PT can win the election in the first round.

  • Lula (PT): 53% (52% in the previous survey, from 5 Sept.)
  • Bolsonaro (PL): 36% (36% in the previous poll)

Valid votes exclude blank and invalid votes. Lula leads the dispute:

  • Lula (EN): 51% (50% in previous poll, from 5 September)
  • Bolsonaro (PL): 35% (35% in previous survey)
  • Cyrus (PDT): 8% (9% in previous survey)
  • Tebet (MDB): 4% (4% in previous survey)
  • d’Avila (New): 1% (1% in previous survey)
  • Thronicke (Union Brazil): 1% (1% in previous survey)

In the spontaneous response, in which the names of the candidates are not shown, the numbers of Lula and Bolsonaro remain close to the stimulated. Lula has 44% (compared to 42% on 5/9) and Bolsonaro, 30% (same rate as in the previous survey).

  • Lula (EN): 44% (42% in the previous poll as of September 5)
  • Bolsonaro (PL): 30% (30% in previous survey)
  • Cyrus (PDT): 5% (4% in previous survey)
  • Tebet (MDB): 2% (2% in previous survey)
  • d’Avila (New): 0% (0% in previous survey)
  • Thronicke (Union Brazil): 0% (0% in previous survey)
  • Eymael Constituent (DC): 0% (0% in previous survey)
  • Sofia Manzano (PCB): 0% (not mentioned in previous survey)
  • Leo Pericles (UP): was not mentioned
  • Father Kelmon (PTB): was not mentioned
  • Vera (PSTU): was not mentioned
  • white/null: 7% (7% in previous survey)
  • Don’t know/didn’t answer: 12% (13% in previous survey)

About Abhishek Pratap

Food maven. Unapologetic travel fanatic. MCU's fan. Infuriatingly humble creator. Award-winning pop culture ninja.

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