Futures Ibovespa operates stable after strong drop the day before, with attention to US inflation data; dollar falls

The Ibovespa futures contract for October operates close to stability, with a slight negative variation of 0.02%, at 111,735 points, at 9:35 am (Brasilia time) this Wednesday (14). The future dollar with the same maturity was down 0.36%, at R$ 5.189. The commercial dollar fell 0.37%, to R$5.168 in purchases and R$5.169 in sales at the same time.

The market is still struggling to recover after the spot Ibovespa registered a sharp drop of 2.30% the day before, following the fall in Wall Street indices last Tuesday with consumer inflation data. Yesterday, the United States reported that inflation in the country rose 0.1% in August compared to July, with the core showing a rise of 0.3%. In the 12-month period, the rise in prices was 8.3%. The CPI was widely expected to show deflation.

Stock markets crashed. In New York, the S&P 500 fell 4.32% and the Nasdaq, which concentrates companies that rely more on cheap credit to grow, lost 5.16%. The Dow Jones, which brings together 30 large American companies, lost more than 1,200 points and declined by 3.94%. The three indices had their worst day since June 2020.

The almost unanimous assessment of analysts is that at the meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC, its acronym in English) on September 20 and 21, the members of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) will opt for a new hike in the interest rate by 75 basis points. And the bet for an even more dramatic tightening of 100 basis points has also entered the radar.

On this date, investors closely monitor the August producer price data, which was in line with expectations. The index dropped 0.1% in August compared to July; compared to August 2021, the increase was 8.7%.

The expectation of the Refinitiv consensus was a deflation of 0.1% for the full index and an advance of 8.8% in the annual comparison.

Here, after the positive surprise of the day before with the services sector, retail data disappointed. The volume of retail sales in the country decreased by 0.8% in July, compared to June, presenting the third consecutive month of negative rate. In the accumulated of 2022, the retail registered a variation of 0.4%. In the last 12 months, the sector accumulates a fall of 1.8%. Compared to July 2021, the decline was 5.2%.

The result was lower than expected, as the market projected a rise of 0.30% on a monthly basis and a fall of 3.5% on an annual basis, according to Refinitiv.

Analysis by Pamela Semezzato, investment analyst at Clear Corretora

Ibovespa

“And after another test at the top of the lateralization, Ibovespa failed to break and continues in the same scenario of lateralization. The next support and point where it can accelerate the move to further declines is the 108,800 breakout. And confirmation of a new high comes with the breakout of the 114,300 top.”

Dollar

“It continues without a trend definition and within a very short-term consolidation. It retested the bottom region between R$5.06 and R$5.10 and had a very strong buying reaction, but it is already working again in the resistance region at 5,280. We are still waiting for the breakout of one of the ends to define a trend.”

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About Abhishek Pratap

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